大越期货PVC期货早报-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on PVC is influenced by multiple factors, with supply pressure increasing and demand potentially remaining weak. The PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4960 - 5070 [9]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the recovery of domestic demand is sluggish [14]. - The bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consumption inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: The fundamentals are bearish. In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a 0.67% month - on - month increase. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.84%, with no change from the previous week. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 324,580 tons, a 4.06% decrease, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 127,700 tons, a 12.82% increase. The downstream overall开工率 was 42.05%, slightly increased, but still below the historical average. The cost of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based production increased, and production scheduling may be under pressure [6]. - Basis: On August 1, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,980 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 35 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [11]. - Inventory: Factory inventory was 345,340 tons, a 3.28% decrease. Calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 269,190 tons, a 3.12% decrease, and ethylene - based factory inventory was 76,150 tons, a 3.85% decrease. Social inventory was 448,000 tons, a 4.91% increase. The inventory - to - production days of production enterprises was 5.8 days, a 3.33% decrease, presenting a bearish situation [11]. - Market Trend: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below MA20, showing a neutral situation [11]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and the short position increased, presenting a bearish situation [11]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market data, including prices, spreads, inventory, and downstream开工率 of different types of PVC enterprises [17]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend: The report shows the historical basis trend of PVC futures, which helps to understand the relationship between the spot and futures prices [19]. - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: It shows the historical spread trends of different main contracts of PVC futures, providing information for spread trading analysis [25]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium Carbide - Based Raw Materials: - Lanthanum Carbon: It includes the price, cost - profit,开工率, and inventory trends of lanthanum carbon [29]. - Calcium Carbide: It shows the price, cost - profit,开工率, and maintenance loss of calcium carbide [32]. - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt: It presents the price, production, and inventory trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt [34]. - Caustic Soda: It includes the price, cost - profit,开工率, production, and inventory of caustic soda [36]. - Supply Trend: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC [40]. - Demand Trend: It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average开工率, and开工率 of different downstream products of PVC. It also shows the real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as social financing scale, M2 increment, local government special bond issuance, and infrastructure investment data [44]. - Inventory: It presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [60]. - Ethylene - Based: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene - based PVC, and import spread of vinyl chloride [62]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export [66].