大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards demand - led. Although there are some positive factors such as factory production cuts and reduced imports from Chile, the overall market is still affected by over - supply due to high - level supply from ore/salt lake ends and weak demand from the power battery end. The downward trend is difficult to change [8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 17,268 tons, a 7.31% week - on - week decrease, but still higher than the historical average. In July 2025, the production was 81,530 tons, and it is predicted to reach 84,200 tons next month, a 3.27% increase [8]. - Demand Side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 93,672 tons, a 1.27% week - on - week decrease, and that of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,499 tons, a 0.32% week - on - week decrease. Next month, demand is expected to strengthen and inventory may decline [8]. - Cost Side: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 68,189 yuan/ton, a 1.02% daily decrease, with a production profit of 2,136 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 75,292 yuan/ton, a 1.21% daily decrease, with a production loss of 6,850 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the enthusiasm for production scheduling is average [8]. - Base Difference: On August 1st, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,350 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the 09 contract was 2,430 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The smelter's inventory was 51,958 tons, a 6.18% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 45,888 tons, a 7.18% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The overall inventory was 141,726 tons, a 1.00% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [8]. - Market: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closes below MA20. The net short position of the main contract is increasing [8]. - Expectation: The CIF price of 6% concentrate has a daily decrease and is lower than the historical average. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 67,360 - 70,480 [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Price Changes: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and other related products showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of lithium ore 01 increased by 0.61% from 69,140 to 69,560, and the base difference of 01 decreased by 37.41% from 2,860 to 1,790 [13]. - Supply - Side Data: The weekly operating rate was 63.92%, a 2.77% increase. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 tons, a 4.41% increase. The monthly import of lithium concentrate decreased by 17.25%, and the monthly import of lithium carbonate decreased by 16.31% [17]. - Demand - Side Data: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 290,700 tons, a 1.86% increase. The monthly export of lithium iron phosphate was 2,031,541 kg, a 115.75% increase. The monthly production of ternary materials was 68,640 tons, a 5.75% increase [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time. The production of lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica in China has also shown different trends in different years [24]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows different situations in different months. For example, in July 2025, the balance was 2,816 tons [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production and Capacity: The production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) has different trends. The monthly production in July 2025 was 81,530 tons. The monthly capacity also shows different levels [29]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate varies monthly. In July 2025, the balance was 2,682 tons [33]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production and Utilization Rate: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has different trends in different years. The production from different sources (smelting and causticizing) also shows different situations [36]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows different values in different months. In July 2025, the balance was - 3,149 tons [38]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials: The cost and profit of producing lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and recycled materials have different trends. For example, the profit of producing lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is positive, while that from lithium mica is negative [8][41][44]. - Profit of Different Processes: The profit of processes such as purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate, carbonizing lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate also shows different trends [44]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects shows different trends. The overall inventory is higher than the historical average [8][49]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The inventory of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelters also shows different trends [49]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price and Production: The price of batteries and the production of battery cells show different trends over time. The monthly production of battery cells and the monthly loading volume of power batteries also change [53]. - Inventory and Export: The inventory of lithium battery cells and the export volume of lithium batteries also show different trends [53][56]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price and Production: The price of ternary precursors and the production capacity utilization rate show different trends. The monthly production of ternary precursors also changes [59]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors shows different values in different months. In July 2025, the balance was - 6,410 tons [62]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price and Cost - Profit: The price of ternary materials and the cost - profit trend show different situations. The weekly operating rate and inventory of ternary materials also change [65][67]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/ Lithium Iron Phosphate - Price and Production: The price of phosphoric acid iron/lithium iron phosphate and the production capacity and production volume show different trends. The monthly production of phosphoric acid iron and lithium iron phosphate also changes [69][72]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate shows different trends [73]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Penetration Rate: The production, sales, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles show different trends over time. The retail - wholesale ratio and dealer inventory index also change [77][78][81].