大越期货甲醇周报-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the methanol market are becoming more polarized, and regional trends are expected to be prominent in the later stage. In the port market, with concentrated imports expected next week, there is a high probability of inventory accumulation. The shutdown and maintenance of coal - to - olefin plants in Zhejiang and the off - season of the industry will drag down overall demand, so the port market is predicted to be weak. Inland, although methanol production is on the rise, low enterprise inventories mean no short - term supply pressure. The restart of olefin plants and the external procurement demand of northwest CTO enterprises support the inland methanol price. However, affected by the weak port market, the inland methanol price is expected to fluctuate slightly [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - The fundamentals of the methanol market are polarized, with different trends in the port and inland markets. The port market may face inventory accumulation and weak demand, while the inland market has relatively healthy supply - demand fundamentals but is affected by the port's weakness [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From July 25th to August 1st, the prices in different regions showed different trends. The price in Jiangsu decreased by 4.14%, from 2488 yuan/ton to 2385 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong (Lunan) remained unchanged at 2230 yuan/ton; the price in Hebei increased by 0.45%, from 2225 yuan/ton to 2235 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia increased by 0.73%, from 2050 yuan/ton to 2065 yuan/ton; and the price in Fujian decreased by 3.97%, from 2520 yuan/ton to 2420 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2.2 Methanol Spot, Futures, and Basis - From July 25th to August 1st, the spot price decreased by 4.14% (from 2488 yuan/ton to 2385 yuan/ton), the futures price decreased by 5.00% (from 2519 yuan/ton to 2393 yuan/ton), and the basis increased by 23 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - to - methanol profit decreased by 41 yuan/ton from July 25th to August 1st; natural gas - to - methanol profit remained at - 120 yuan/ton; and coke oven gas - to - methanol profit decreased by 334 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% from last week to this week, from 78.71% to 74.90%. The load in the northwest region decreased by 3.55%, from 85.09% to 81.54% [15]. 3.2.5 Outer - market Methanol Price and Spread - From July 25th to August 1st, the CFR China price decreased by 3.21% (from 280 dollars/ton to 271 dollars/ton), the CFR Southeast Asia price remained unchanged, and the spread between CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia widened by 9 dollars/ton [18]. 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spread - From July 25th to August 1st, the spot price decreased by 4.14%, the import cost decreased by 2.98%, and the import spread decreased by 29 yuan/ton [21]. 3.2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Price - From July 25th to August 1st, the prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged [28]. 3.2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde: The production profit decreased by 4 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.90% [29]. - Dimethyl ether: The production profit decreased by 14 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.82% [31]. - Acetic acid: The production profit increased by 57 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.94% [36]. 3.2.9 MTO Production Profit and Load - The MTO production profit increased (from - 1262 yuan/ton to - 932 yuan/ton), and the MTO/MTP device load in the east China slightly increased [40]. 3.2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - In the east China port, the inventory increased from 41.67 to 42.48; in the south China port, the inventory increased from 17.04 to 22.55 [41]. 3.2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - From July 25th to August 1st, the warehouse receipts decreased by 15.67% (from 10134 to 8546), and the effective forecasts remained at 0 [45]. 3.3 Maintenance Status 3.3.1 Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, with different start and end times, raw materials, and production losses. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat (100,000 - ton annual capacity, coke oven gas) started maintenance in early November 2024, and the end time is to be determined, with a weekly production loss of 1950 tons [48]. 3.3.2 Overseas Methanol Device Operation - Some overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc. have different operation statuses. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have restored one unit, but it needs to be verified; Marjan in Iran is in the process of restarting and recovering in mid - March [49]. 3.3.3 Olefin Device Operation - Many domestic olefin plants have different operation statuses. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants stopped for maintenance on March 15th, expected to last for 45 days; Ningbo Fude is operating smoothly [50].