Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has a shortage of raw material supply and firm purchase prices, while Hainan has normal tapping operations and seasonal output. Due to the decline in futures and spot prices, the market bearish sentiment has emerged, and local processing plants are less willing to replenish high - priced raw materials, leading to a continued decline in the glue purchase price [2]. - Recently, the total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port has been decreasing, with both bonded and general trade inventories showing a downward trend. The arrival and warehousing volume of overseas goods remains low, and the overall warehousing rate has decreased month - on - month. The decline in rubber prices has stimulated downstream tire enterprises to replenish goods at low prices, and the overall outbound volume has increased month - on - month [2]. - In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires and all - steel tires has declined due to some enterprises' maintenance. Although the resumption of work of maintenance enterprises this week will boost the capacity utilization rate, there are also some enterprises with maintenance plans at the beginning of the month, so the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall improvement space is limited. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,700 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,500 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 14,365 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - gauge rubber contract is 12,160 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 910 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - gauge rubber is - 40 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - gauge rubber is 2,205 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2]. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 77,028 lots, a decrease of 7,311 lots; the position of the main 20 - gauge rubber contract is 33,716 lots, a decrease of 3,164 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 35,534 lots, a decrease of 2,275 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - gauge rubber is - 7,967 lots, a decrease of 1,088 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 176,640 tons, a decrease of 990 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - gauge rubber are 39,816 tons, an increase of 100 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,300 yuan/ton; the price of Thai Standard STR20 is 1,740 US dollars/ton, down 140 US dollars; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian Standard SMR20 is 1,740 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,050 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,800 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 260 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of 20 - gauge rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,369 yuan/ton, down 142 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - gauge rubber contract is 209 yuan/ton, down 127 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 65.33 Thai baht/kg, down 0.26 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 57.9 Thai baht/kg, down 4.11 Thai baht; the market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 54 Thai baht/kg, down 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber is 47.4 Thai baht/kg, down 0.3 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 147 US dollars/ton, up 6.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 46.6 US dollars/ton, up 11.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 12.09 million tons, a decrease of 2.73 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 28.08 million tons, an increase of 5.85 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 61.08%, down 3.94 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.45%, down 1.42 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.45 days, down 1.5 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.64 days, down 0.91 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 0.8 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 22.03%, up 2.24 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.57%, up 1.17 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 28.92%, down 1.88 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 28.91%, down 1.89 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From August 3 - 9, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern part of the equator, the red areas are mainly in sporadic areas in southern Myanmar, and the precipitation in most other areas is low, reducing the impact on tapping; in the southern part of the equator, the red areas are mainly in eastern Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is moderate, increasing the impact on tapping [2]. - As of August 3, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 631,800 tons, a decrease of 8,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.35%. The bonded area inventory is 75,500 tons, a decline of 0.40%; the general trade inventory is 556,300 tons, a decline of 1.47%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 1.66 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.12 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 2.01 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.85 percentage points [2]. - As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.19 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.20 percentage points [2].
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250804
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-04 08:47