瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, supply remains ample, demand will continue to decline, and prices will remain under pressure. It is recommended to consider buying put options for the soda ash main contract [2]. - For glass, the probability of a market correction next week is high. It is advisable to lay out long positions at low prices, while being cautious about operational risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1,253 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1,086 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2]. - The price difference between soda ash and glass is 167 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; soda ash main contract open interest is 921,926 lots, down 52,098 lots; glass main contract open interest is 1,168,598 lots, up 67,333 lots [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net open interest is -333,439 lots, down 10,162 lots; glass top 20 net open interest is -241,904 lots, down 2,357 lots [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 2,790 tons, up 468 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 1,700 tons, unchanged [2]. - The price difference between the September and January contracts of soda ash is -77 yuan, up 1 yuan; the price difference between the September and January contracts of glass is -122 yuan, down 15 yuan [2]. - Soda ash basis is 54 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; glass basis is 67 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy - soda ash is 1,301 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; Central China heavy - soda ash is 1,375 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light - soda ash is 1,325 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light - soda ash is 1,250 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]. - Shahe glass sheets are 1,184 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; Central China glass sheets are 1,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 80.27%, down 2.75 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75%, unchanged [2]. - Glass in - production capacity is 15.96 million tons/year, up 0.07 million tons; the number of glass in - production lines is 222, down 1 [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 185.18 million tons, up 5.6 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 59.499 million weight cases, down 2.397 million weight cases [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 30,364.32 million square meters, up 7,180.71 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area is 22,566.61 million square meters, up 4,181.47 million square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - On August 1st, South玻 A announced that its wholly - owned subsidiaries signed a sales agreement for photovoltaic glass with subsidiaries of LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd., with an estimated total contract value of about 6.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: Domestic soda ash production is expected to decline as the maintenance window approaches. Natural - soda ash methods will gradually replace outdated production capacity. Glass production line cold repairs increased by 1, but production increased slightly. Domestic soda ash enterprise inventory decreased slightly this week, and the de - stocking process will be volatile [2]. - Glass: The number of glass production line cold repairs increased by 1, but production increased slightly. The real - estate situation is not optimistic, and downstream deep - processing orders increased slightly. The inventory of photovoltaic glass is under pressure [2].