瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250804

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic agricultural demand for urea is in a seasonal off - peak, and demand continues to weaken. Although it's entering the autumn fertilizer production stage, the increase in the compound fertilizer industry's demand for urea is slow, and downstream factories mainly make small - quantity purchases at low prices. - The export of urea fails to meet expectations, new orders for factories slow down, and the inventory of domestic urea enterprises still has a tendency to accumulate in the short term. - It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1680 - 1760 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1733 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 21 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. - The main contract's open interest is 142,211 lots, down 489 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 21,151 lots, down 3849 lots. - The exchange warehouse receipts are 3373 lots, unchanged [2]. 3.2现货市场 - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei remain unchanged at 1750 yuan/ton, in Henan and Jiangsu are down 10 yuan/ton to 1770 yuan/ton, in Shandong remain unchanged at 1760 yuan/ton, and in Anhui are down 10 yuan/ton to 1780 yuan/ton. - The main contract basis is 27 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan. - FOB Baltic is 435 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars; FOB China's main port is 410 dollars/ton, down 15 dollars [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 49.3 million tons, down 5 million tons; enterprise inventory is 91.73 million tons, up 5.85 million tons. - The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.6%, up 0.01%; the daily output is 193,500 tons, unchanged. - The urea export volume is 7 million tons, up 7 million tons; the monthly output is 6,031,340 tons, down 261,890 tons [2]. 3.4下游情况 - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 38.68%, up 5.1%; the melamine operating rate is 63.5%, down 1.7%. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 101 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with purchased urea is - 395 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.1682 million tons, down 0.6408 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,500 tons, down 900 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of July 30, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 91.73 million tons, up 5.85 million tons from last week, a 6.81% increase. - As of July 31, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 49.3 million tons, down 5 million tons from last week, a 9.21% decrease. - As of July 31, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3548 million tons, up 0.01 million tons from the previous period, a 0.01% increase; the capacity utilization rate was 83.60%, up 0.01% from the previous period [2].