瑞达期货红枣产业日报-20250804

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the Red Date 2601 contract closed down 0.18%. As of the week ending July 31, the physical inventory at 36 sample points was 10,039 tons, a decrease of 51 tons from the previous week, a 0.51% week - on - week decrease and an 81.11% year - on - year increase. The sample point inventory declined. The arrival of goods in the sales area increased, and the downstream's periodic replenishment supported the price of high - quality goods to rise. The downstream demand in the southern market increased, and the market trading atmosphere improved slightly. [2] - The new - season crops are in the critical fruit - setting period. The market focuses on the weather in the production area. The maximum temperature in Xinjiang will decrease in the next few days, reducing the weather risk. Continuously monitor the situation of the second and third crops of flowers and fruits. [2] - Based on the situation in each production area compared with the normal - year output in 2022, Mysteel preliminarily estimates that the output will decrease by 5 - 10% compared with 2022 and 20 - 25% compared with 2024. The estimated new - season output is 560,000 - 620,000 tons. The new - season output is expected to decrease, but the reduction is less than that in the extremely low - yield year of 2023. Overall, the rising price of high - quality goods supports the firm operation of red date futures prices, but the short - term driving force is limited due to the cooling of the weather theme. Continuously monitor the weather changes. [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for red dates was 10,860 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract was 135,959 lots, a decrease of 4,569 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 23,376 lots, a decrease of 3,443 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 9,248, and the total valid warehouse receipt forecast was 1,044, a decrease of 64. [2] Spot Market - The prices of red date bulk goods in Kashgar, Alar, and Aksu were 6 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and 4.8 yuan/kg respectively, with no change. The wholesale prices of first - grade grey dates in Hebei and Henan were 4.55 yuan/jin and 4.5 yuan/jin respectively, with no change. The prices of special - grade red dates in Henan, Hebei, and Guangdong were 10 yuan/kg, 10.09 yuan/kg, and 11.2 yuan/kg respectively, with a 0.11 - yuan increase in Hebei and no change in others. The price of first - grade red dates in Guangdong was 10 yuan/kg, with no change. [2] Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates was 6.069 million tons, an increase of 3.187 million tons, and the planting area was 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares. [2] Industry Situation - The national red date inventory was 10,039 tons, a decrease of 51 tons. The monthly export volume of red dates was 1,765,107 kg, a decrease of 464,120 kg, and the cumulative export volume was 17,115,674 kg. [2] Downstream Situation - The wholesale price of red dates in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi was 20 yuan/kg, a decrease of 8 yuan. The cumulative sales volume of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni was 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year output growth rate was 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points. [2] Industry News - On August 4, there was light rain in Kashgar, with temperatures ranging from 19 - 32°C. The size of jujube fruits in this area was significantly larger than that in the First Division of the Corps and Aksu. According to on - the - spot research, the per - mu yield of each regiment varied, with the mainstream per - mu yield ranging from 600 - 800 kg. Monitor the growth situation and weather changes in the production area. [2]