瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20250804

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Although the cotton 2509 contract rebounded with reduced positions, the downstream demand remained weak, the new crop area and output increased, the weather theme cooled down, and the market had expectations for quotas. Therefore, the cotton 2509 contract maintained a low and weak market. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to risk control [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract was 13,675 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the closing price of the main cotton yarn contract was 19,825 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was -23,840 lots, a decrease of 5,776 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was 19 lots, a decrease of 2 lots. The position volume of the main cotton contract was 304,033 lots, a decrease of 21,780 lots; the position volume of the main cotton yarn contract was 3,880 lots, a decrease of 430 lots. The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 8,684, a decrease of 123; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 88, a decrease of 1 [2] - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,153 yuan/ton, down 107 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S) was 20,670 yuan/ton, unchanged. The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,551 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the arrival price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S) was 22,121 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding duty) was 14,318 yuan/ton; the arrival price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure cotton combed yarn 32S) was 23,999 yuan/ton, down 102 yuan [2] Spot Market - The arrival price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S) was 22,121 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the arrival price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure cotton combed yarn 32S) was 23,999 yuan/ton, down 102 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons. The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,517 yuan/ton, an increase of 107 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide was 850,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The import volume of cotton in the current month was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the import volume of cotton yarn in the current month was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. The profit of imported cotton was 942 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide was 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 0.6289 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 23.86 days, an increase of 1.52 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 35.46 days, an increase of 2.57 days. The monthly cloth output was 2.779 billion meters, an increase of 0.109 billion meters; the monthly yarn output was 2.065 million tons, an increase of 0.114 million tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.1688977 billion US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.0583566 billion US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for cotton was 10.5%, a decrease of 1.94%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for cotton was 10.49%, a decrease of 1.95%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 10.87%, an increase of 0.32%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 9.05%, a decrease of 0.1% [2] Industry News - As of July 31, the operating load of spinning enterprises in mainstream areas was 66.6%, a decrease of 1.48% month - on - month, and the operating rate continued to decline. Last Friday, the December ICE cotton contract closed down 1.19%. The cotton 2509 contract rose 0.23%, and the cotton yarn 2509 contract closed up 0.33%. Internationally, affected by the sluggish market sentiment, the US cotton futures price declined. The US Department of Agriculture's export sales report showed that in the week ended July 24, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2024/25 market year increased by 39,100 bales, a sharp decrease from the previous week but a significant increase from the average of the previous four weeks. In the same week, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 market year increased by 71,700 bales [2] New Crop Situation - In 2025, the overall cotton planting area in China increased, and the maximum temperature in Xinjiang would decrease next week, and the weather theme cooled down [2]