瑞达期货鸡蛋产业日报-20250804

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the pressure of newly opened laying hens from previous replenishments is significant, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The continuous release of cold - storage eggs further exacerbates the supply pressure. The spot market price has been consistently lower than expected, rising from the previous low and then falling again recently. However, due to continuous high temperatures in many parts of the country, the egg - laying rate of laying hens in some areas has declined, alleviating the short - term market supply pressure. With the start of school - opening stockpiling and Mid - Autumn Festival procurement by food factories, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. In the futures market, the near - month contracts have fallen significantly due to weak spot prices and high inventory, while the far - month contracts are relatively strong, and it is advisable to lightly test long positions in the far - month contracts [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3360 yuan/500 kilograms, down 124 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 34911 lots, up 2099 lots. - The egg futures monthly spread (9 - 1) is - 260 yuan/500 kilograms, down 125 yuan; the futures trading volume of the active contract is 231979 lots, up 5939 lots. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 25 lots, up 3 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 2.99 yuan/jin, down 0.18 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is - 369 yuan/500 kilograms, down 58 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 111.91 (2015 = 100), up 1.02; the national culled laying hen index is 104.09 (2015 = 100), down 4.59. - The average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 3.85 yuan/chick, down 0.03 yuan; the national new - born chick index is 76.07 (2015 = 100), down 30.71. - The average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.7 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan; the laying hen breeding profit is - 0.16 yuan/hen, down 0.1 yuan. - The average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 11.76 yuan/kg, up 0.48 yuan; the national culling age of laying hens is 501 days, down 5 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.33 yuan/kg, down 0.27 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.49 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan. - The average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.34 yuan/kg, up 0.18 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.04 days, unchanged; the weekly inventory in the production link is 0.91 days, down 0.04 days. - The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, down 110.81 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 8032 tons, up 146 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 5.91 yuan/kg, down 0.24 yuan from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.68 yuan/kg, down 0.33 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 7.00 yuan/kg, down 0.20 yuan; in Beijing, it is 6.08 yuan/kg, down 0.36 yuan [2].