瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250804

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Corn: The international corn price is under continuous pressure due to the high output prospects in the US, where the corn excellent rate remains good and the weather is favorable for growth. In the domestic market, the corn supply has slightly increased due to the resumption of shipments by some traders in the Northeast and continuous auctions of imported corn. Meanwhile, downstream demand is weak, and the inventory of feed and deep - processing enterprises is relatively sufficient, leading to a generally weak corn futures price [2]. - Corn Starch: The supply pressure has significantly weakened as the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years due to continuous production losses. However, the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets is poor, and it is the traditional off - season for downstream demand. The supply - demand situation remains loose. The corn starch futures price has been fluctuating at a low level recently, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn: The futures closing price of the active contract is 2284 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is - 17885 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 152541 hands, down 500 hands; the main contract CS - C spread is 380 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2]. - Corn Starch: The futures closing price of the active contract is 2664 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is - 14811 hands, up 3275 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 hands [2]. 3.2 Outer - disk Market - The futures closing price of CBOT corn is 411 cents/bushel, down 2.75 cents; the total position is 1575283 contracts, up 81613 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 133467 contracts, up 416 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2401.37 yuan/ton, down 1.38 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2340 yuan/ton; the CIF price of imported corn is 1928.7 yuan/ton, down 4.44 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 45 dollars/ton [2]. - Corn Starch: The ex - factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2710 yuan/ton, 2950 yuan/ton, and 2880 yuan/ton respectively; the basis of the main contract is 46 yuan, up 4 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine is 401.85 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively; the predicted sowing areas are 35.37 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, 44.3 million hectares respectively [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Inventory: The corn inventory at southern ports is 88.9 million tons, up 62 million tons; at northern ports is 291 million tons, down 13 million tons; the starch enterprise weekly inventory is 129.3 million tons, down 1.8 million tons [2]. - Import and Export: The monthly import volume of corn is 16 million tons, down 3 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27780 tons, up 4060 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly output of feed is 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The sample feed corn inventory days are 30.58 days, down 0.29 days; the deep - processing corn consumption is 113.77 million tons, up 7.53 million tons; the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 41.8%, up 3.17%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 51.76%, up 6.3% [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.92%, down 0.62%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.91%, up 0.11%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options is 6.92% and 6.91% respectively, down 2.64% and 2.65% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - In June, the total consumption of corn for ethanol production and other uses in the US was 498 million bushels, with a month - on - month increase of less than 1% and a slight decrease compared to June last year [2]. - As of July 30, the corn harvest progress in Argentina in the 2024/25 season was 88.0%, 4% higher than a week ago [2]. - As of the week of July 27, 2025, the excellent rate of US corn was 73%, in line with expectations, down from 74% the previous week and up from 68% the same period last year [2].