瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - Short - term supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda is not significant, and the spot price fluctuation is expected to be small. SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, with support around 2450 and resistance around 2610. Attention should be paid to the impact of chlorine - alkali profits on industry operation and the 2450 support and 2610 pressure levels [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2529 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the futures holding volume is 189,077 lots, down 19,374 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is - 11,909 lots, down 1091 lots; the futures trading volume is 752,433 lots, down 277,186 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2606 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2688 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 820 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2562.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis is 34 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and Northwest is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 638 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is - 150 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,980 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 3220 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.6 Industry News - From July 25th to 31st, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1%. As of July 31st, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 424,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 3.87% and a year - on - year increase of 10.9% [3] 3.7 Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis - On the supply side, some devices were shut down last week, and some were restarted, with the capacity utilization rate decreasing by 0.1% to 83.9%. This week, a device in Southwest China is planned to shut down, and a device in Northwest China will restart, with the capacity utilization rate expected to change little. On the demand side, the alumina industry has good profits, and the operating rate has rebounded to a neutral level; the operating rate of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing has remained stable. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 3.87% to 424,200 tons last week [3]