瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20250804

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Monday, the RB2510 contract rebounded after hitting a low. The central bank plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, reducing the reserve - requirement ratio and using various monetary policy tools flexibly to maintain ample liquidity. The weekly output of rebar decreased slightly this period, with a low capacity utilization rate of 46.27%. Terminal demand was weak, apparent demand declined, and inventory increased. The market may fluctuate widely in a range, and technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows DIFF and DEA running below the 0 axis. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,204.00 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; RB main contract position: 1,742,635 lots, down 18,068 lots; RB contract top 20 net position: - 97,529 lots, down 12,574 lots; RB10 - 1 contract spread: - 67 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; RB SHFE warehouse receipt: 82,640 tons, down 2,394 tons; HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 213 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,370.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (actual weight): 3,456 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,400.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,280.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; RB main contract basis: 166.00 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 100.00 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 768.00 yuan/wet ton, down 2 yuan; Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,365.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Q235 billet: 3,050.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; 45 - port iron ore inventory: 136.579 million tons, down 1.3248 million tons; Sample coke - plant coke inventory: 462,800 tons, down 35,200 tons; Sample steel - mill coke inventory: 6.2678 million tons, down 132,200 tons; Tangshan billet inventory: 1.1102 million tons, up 41,000 tons; 247 steel - mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.48%, unchanged; 247 steel - mill blast furnace capacity utilization: 90.22%, down 0.56% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Sample steel - mill rebar output: 2.1106 million tons, down 9,000 tons; Sample steel - mill rebar capacity utilization: 46.27%, down 0.20%; Sample steel - mill rebar inventory: 1.6215 million tons, down 35,200 tons; 35 - city rebar social inventory: 3.8414 million tons, up 111,700 tons; Independent electric - arc furnace steel - mill operating rate: 69.79%, up 1.04%; Domestic crude steel output: 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons; Chinese rebar monthly output: 1.688 million tons, up 30,000 tons; Net steel export volume: 921,000 tons, down 89,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - National Real Estate Climate Index: 93.60, down 0.11; Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment: 2.80%, down 0.90%; Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment: - 11.20%, down 0.50%; Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment: 4.60%, down 1.00%; Cumulative floor area under construction: 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.02 million square meters; Cumulative new construction area: 303.64 million square meters, down 71.81 million square meters; Commercial housing unsold area: 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2]. 4. Industry News - US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that the new round of tariffs imposed by US President Trump on multiple countries last week is "basically finalized" and will not be adjusted in current negotiations. - The US added 73,000 non - farm jobs in July, lower than the estimated 104,000 and the previous value of 147,000, the lowest in 9 months. After the release of the non - farm data, President Trump criticized Powell again and called for an interest - rate cut [2].