Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Precious Metals: The unexpectedly low US non - farm payroll data in July and the downward revision of the previous value have strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. With the weakening of the US dollar and the decline in US Treasury yields, the cost of holding gold has decreased. Global central bank gold - buying demand, fiscal and monetary easing expectations, geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties are all factors driving the return of gold prices to fundamental strength [3]. - Copper: The recent decline in copper prices is due to the US adjustment of copper tariff policies. Although the tariff does not cover core upstream products, the high copper inventory in the US COMEX market may affect the price difference between LME and COMEX. The price of Shanghai copper is still closely linked to LME copper, and weak downstream demand is expected to emerge this week [16]. - Aluminum and Related Products: Macro factors have a negative impact on aluminum. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure. Alumina is expected to be weak in the short - term, while cast aluminum alloy has a relatively good fundamental situation, and its futures price generally follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum [37]. - Zinc: The supply side of zinc is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and the processing fee is expected to increase this month. The demand side is weak during the traditional off - season. In the short term, attention should be paid to macro data, market sentiment, and supply - side disturbances [61]. - Nickel and Its Industry Chain: Anti - involution sentiment has declined, and factors such as the US dollar index, US copper tariffs, and Sino - US economic and trade talks are suppressing the market. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines has loosened, and the downstream demand has improved. Nickel sulfate prices are firm, and nickel iron prices have adjusted. Stainless steel has limited decline due to multiple factors [77]. - Tin: The resumption of tin mining in Myanmar is expected to start in late August at the earliest, which will have the greatest impact on the tin fundamentals, but may not affect short - term supply and demand. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the future [92]. - Lithium Carbonate: There are still short - term supply - side disturbances, and the production schedule in August is expected to be positive. It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock state [108]. - Silicon Industry Chain: The current macro - sentiment continues to affect the market, and the fundamentals remain unchanged. The industrial silicon market is expected to fluctuate, and the polysilicon market is expected to have a wide - range shock [118]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Price Influencing Factors: The unexpectedly low US non - farm payroll data in July (73,000 new jobs) and the downward revision of the previous value have increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to 89.1%. The weakening of the US dollar and the decline in US Treasury yields have reduced the cost of holding gold, while long - term support comes from central bank gold - buying demand and fiscal and monetary easing expectations [3]. - Price Data: Various price data of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver futures, including prices, price differences, and long - term trends, are presented [4][12][13]. Copper - Price Influencing Factors: The US tariff adjustment on copper products has affected copper prices. Although core upstream products are excluded, the high inventory in the US COMEX market may impact the price relationship between different markets. Downstream demand is expected to weaken [16]. - Price Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper and London copper futures and spot are provided, including data such as the main contract, continuous contracts, and spot premiums and discounts [17][22][25]. Aluminum and Related Products - Aluminum: Macro factors are negative for aluminum. Although domestic demand is in the off - season and social inventory is accumulating, the low absolute inventory provides some support, and prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure [37]. - Alumina: The operating capacity of alumina is high and in surplus, and inventory is rising. The warehouse receipt problem may be resolved in August, and prices may be weak in the short - term [37]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The price of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply of scrap aluminum may decline in the future, providing strong support for alloy prices. The demand from exchange - listed brands is good, and the futures price generally follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum [37]. - Price Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot, as well as price differences between different contracts, are presented [38][42][48]. Zinc - Price Influencing Factors: The supply side is gradually changing from tight to surplus, and the processing fee is expected to increase this month. The demand side is weak during the off - season. Short - term attention should be paid to macro data and supply - side disturbances [61]. - Price Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc futures and spot, including price differences between different contracts and spot premiums and discounts, are provided [62][70]. Nickel and Its Industry Chain - Price Influencing Factors: Anti - involution sentiment has declined, and factors such as the US dollar index and US copper tariffs are suppressing the market. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines has loosened, and downstream demand has improved. Nickel sulfate prices are firm, and nickel iron prices have adjusted [77]. - Price Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures, as well as prices of related products such as nickel ore, nickel sulfate, and stainless steel, are presented [78][83][91]. Tin - Price Influencing Factors: The resumption of tin mining in Myanmar is expected to start in late August at the earliest, which will have the greatest impact on the tin fundamentals, but may not affect short - term supply and demand. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate [92]. - Price Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin and LME tin futures and spot, as well as prices of related products such as tin concentrate and solder, are provided [93][99][101]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Influencing Factors: There are still short - term supply - side disturbances, and the production schedule in August is expected to be positive. It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock state [108]. - Price Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of lithium carbonate futures and spot, as well as inventory data, are presented [108][111][116]. Silicon Industry Chain - Price Influencing Factors: The current macro - sentiment continues to affect the market, and the fundamentals remain unchanged. The industrial silicon market is expected to fluctuate, and the polysilicon market is expected to have a wide - range shock [118]. - Price Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon and polysilicon spot and futures, as well as prices of related products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, are provided [119][120][127].
贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250804
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-08-04 10:41