Group 1: Sugar Core View - Global sugar supply is expected to be loose due to a 15.07% year-on-year increase in Brazil's sugar production to 340,600 tons in the first half of July and an 18% expected increase in India's new season production to 34.9 million tons. In the domestic market, the Nanning spot price has a premium, but import pressure persists, and the peak consumption season provides limited support [3]. Specific Data - Sugar futures closing prices on August 4, 2025: SR01 at 5636 with a daily increase of 0.28% and a weekly decrease of 1.16%; SR03 at 5609 with a daily increase of 0.25% and a weekly decrease of 1.06%; SR05 at 5574 with a daily increase of 0.07% and a weekly decrease of 1.17%; SR07 at 5571 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.1%; SR09 at 5718 with a daily decrease of 0.26% and a weekly decrease of 2.17%; SR11 at 5657 with a daily increase of 0.07% and a weekly decrease of 1.63%; SB at 16.2 with a daily decrease of 0.92% and a weekly decrease of 1.40%; W at 465 with a daily decrease of 0.53% and a weekly decrease of 1.96% [4]. - Sugar basis data on August 1, 2025: Nanning - SR01 with a basis of 410, a daily increase of 35, and a weekly increase of 66; Nanning - SR03 with a basis of 435, a daily increase of 35, and a weekly increase of 57; Nanning - SR05 with a basis of 460, a daily increase of 41, and a weekly increase of 53; Nanning - SR07 with a basis of 459, a daily increase of 38, and a weekly increase of 42; Nanning - SR09 with a basis of 297, a daily increase of 60, and a weekly increase of 123; Nanning - SR11 with a basis of 377, a daily increase of 32, and a weekly increase of 99 [9]. - Sugar import price data on August 4, 2025: Brazilian import quota - within price at 4466 with a daily decrease of 14 and a weekly decrease of 46; out - of - quota price at 5673 with a daily decrease of 18 and a weekly decrease of 61; Thai import quota - within price at 4542 with a daily decrease of 14 and a weekly decrease of 22; out - of - quota price at 5772 with a daily decrease of 18 and a weekly decrease of 28 [12]. Group 2: Cotton Core View - The current decline in cotton prices is conducive to the outflow of high - premium warehouse receipts. However, the expectation of tight domestic cotton supply at the end of the year remains unchanged, which may still strongly support cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may gradually enter a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, the de - stocking speed of cotton in the off - season, and the adjustment of the Sino - US trade agreement [14]. Specific Data - Cotton and cotton yarn futures closing prices on August 4, 2025: Cotton 01 at 13805 with an increase of 20 (0.15%); Cotton 05 at 13760 with an increase of 30 (0.22%); Cotton 09 at 13675 with an increase of 90 (0.66%); Cotton yarn 01 at 19705 with an increase of 25 (0.13%); Cotton yarn 05 at 0 with a decrease of 19960 (- 100%); Cotton yarn 09 at 19825 with an increase of 85 (0.43%) [15]. - Cotton and cotton yarn price spreads: Cotton basis at 1675 with no change; Cotton 01 - 05 at 55 with no change; Cotton 05 - 09 at 145 with no change; Cotton 09 - 01 at - 200 with no change; Cotton - yarn spread at 6145 with no change; Domestic - foreign cotton spread at 1709 with a decrease of 35; Domestic - foreign yarn spread at - 536 with an increase of 14 [16]. Group 3: Red Dates Core View - Recently, the weather in the production areas has changed rapidly, and there are still differences in the market's view of the new - season production. Red date prices may fluctuate temporarily. Attention should be paid to the growth of grey dates. With sufficient supply of old dates and no major problems in the future weather in the production areas, red date prices will still face pressure [20]. Group 4: Apples Core View - Under the impact of seasonal fruits, the sales speed is limited. In Shandong, the number of packaged apples is limited due to the busy farming season. In Shaanxi, the apple supply is concentrated in northern Shaanxi, and the secondary production areas are almost cleared. For new - season apples, the opening prices of Qinyang apples are the same as last year, but the prices have recently declined to varying degrees [24]. Specific Data - Apple futures closing prices on August 4, 2025: AP01 at 7744 with a daily increase of 0.77% and a weekly decrease of 1.91%; AP03 at 7725 with a daily increase of 0.66% and a weekly decrease of 1.1%; AP04 at 7779 with a daily increase of 0.93% and a weekly decrease of 1.03%; AP05 at 7838 with a daily increase of 0.49% and a weekly decrease of 0.87%; AP10 at 7826 with a daily increase of 0.88% and a weekly decrease of 2.81%; AP11 at 7642 with a daily increase of 0.88% and a weekly decrease of 1.90%; AP12 at 7704 with a daily increase of 0.8% and a weekly decrease of 1.42% [25]. - Apple spot prices on August 4, 2025: Qixia first - and second - grade 80 at 3.8 with no daily or weekly change; Luochuan semi - commercial 70 at 4.5 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 6%; Jingning paper - bagged 75 at 5.6 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 6.67%; Yiyuan paper - bagged 70 at 2.3 with no daily or weekly change; Wanrong paper - plus - film 75 at 2.8 with no daily or weekly change [25].
软商品日报-20250804
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-08-04 10:47