油脂油料产业日报-20250804

Group 1: Report Core Views Palm Oil - Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures opened lower due to inventory growth concerns, with short - term pressure to break below 4,200 ringgit and potentially test 4,000 ringgit support. After a brief shock or digestion of the MPOB report, it may continue to decline, possibly briefly breaking below 4,000 ringgit [3]. - Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures are under pressure at high levels and may test the 8,800 - yuan support. If it breaks below, it may continue to decline and could potentially fall to around 8,500 yuan [3]. Soybean Oil - Due to high soybean arrivals, factory operating rates are above 60%, leading to increased soybean oil production and inventory in most regions. However, historical data suggests inventory will soon reach a peak and then decline as demand increases, causing spot basis quotes to rise after narrow - range fluctuations [4]. Bean Meal - The stalemate in Sino - US trade negotiations persists. China's fourth - quarter soybean purchases are locked in South America, with high Brazilian and rising Argentine premiums supporting costs. The short - term continuous bean meal 09 contract will test the 3,040 - 3,050 yuan resistance. Spot prices are rising, and the basis is narrowing. As of the end of Week 31, 2025, domestic bean meal inventory decreased to 1.053 million tons, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,150 yuan/ton [17]. Group 2: Oil Price and Spread Information Oil Price - Palm oil: The 01 contract is at 8,832 yuan/ton (-1.1%), the 05 contract is at 8,638 yuan/ton (-1.21%), the 09 contract is at 8,838 yuan/ton (-0.81%), and BMD palm oil is at 4,172 ringgit/ton (-1.72%) [7]. - Soybean oil: The 01 contract is at 8,214 yuan/ton (0.59%), the 05 contract is at 7,848 yuan/ton (0.29%), the 09 contract is at 8,250 yuan/ton (0.47%), and CBOT soybean oil is at 53.9 cents/pound (-1.55%) [13]. Spread - Palm oil spreads: P 1 - 5 is 186 yuan/ton (+4), P 5 - 9 is - 166 yuan/ton (-2), P 9 - 1 is - 20 yuan/ton (-2) [5]. - Soybean oil - palm oil spreads: Y - P 01 is - 704 yuan/ton (+56), Y - P 05 is - 896 yuan/ton (+32), Y - P 09 is - 636 yuan/ton (+72) [5]. Group 3: Oilseed Futures Price and Spread Information Futures Price - Bean meal: The 01 contract is at 3,055 (+18, 0.59%), the 05 contract is at 2,746 (+8, 0.29%), the 09 contract is at 3,024 (+14, 0.47%) [18]. - Rapeseed meal: The 01 contract is at 2,432 (+23, 0.95%), the 05 contract is at 2,380 (+5, 0.21%), the 09 contract is at 2,678 (+3, 0.11%) [18]. Spread - Bean meal spreads: M01 - 05 is 299 (unchanged), M05 - 09 is - 272 (unchanged), M09 - 01 is - 27 (unchanged) [19][21]. - Rapeseed meal spreads: RM01 - 05 is 34 (unchanged), RM05 - 09 is - 300 (unchanged), RM09 - 01 is 266 (unchanged) [19][21].