瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - On August 4th, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1141.0, up 2.33%. With several macro - events settled, market sentiment weakened. Fundamentally, mine - end inventory decreased overall, clean coal inventory shifted downstream, import cumulative growth declined for 3 consecutive months, and total inventory increased for 4 consecutive weeks. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On August 4th, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1615.5, down 0.15%. The fifth round of price increase was postponed. With no obvious incremental policy expectations and the impact of position limits, the market became cautious about high prices. Fundamentally, raw - material inventory rebounded, iron - water production decreased, and coking coal total inventory increased for 4 consecutive weeks. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 45 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main - contract closing price was 1141.00 yuan/ton, up 48.50; J main - contract closing price was 1615.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00. JM futures - contract holding volume was 796849.00 lots, up 32505.00; J futures - contract holding volume was 50354.00 lots, down 1172.00. The net holding volume of the top 20 coking - coal contracts was - 99841.00 lots, up 6368.00; that of coke was - 7199.00 lots, down 318.00. JM1 - 9 month contract spread was 135.50 yuan/ton, up 28.00; J1 - 9 month contract spread was 60.50 yuan/ton, up 21.50. Coking - coal warehouse receipts were 0.00; coke warehouse receipts were 760.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Dry Qimantage Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 880.00 yuan/ton; Russian main - coking coal forward spot was 143.50 US dollars/wet ton; Jingtang Port Australian imported main - coking coal was 1430.00 yuan/ton; Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced main - coking coal was 1680.00 yuan/ton; Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur main - coking coal was 1400.00 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking - coal ex - factory price was 1100.00 yuan/ton. Tangshan quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1610.00 yuan/ton; Rizhao Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1420.00 yuan/ton; Tianjin Port first - class metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton; Tianjin Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1420.00 yuan/ton. JM main - contract basis was 259.00 yuan/ton, down 48.50; J main - contract basis was - 5.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The raw - coal inventory of 110 coal - washing plants was 277.10 million tons, down 15.43; the clean - coal inventory was 166.39 million tons, down 9.23. The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants was 61.51%, down 0.80. Raw - coal production was 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00. Coal and lignite imports were 3304.00 million tons, down 300.00. The daily average raw - coal output of 523 coking - coal mines was 193.60, down 1.20. The imported coking - coal inventory of 16 ports was 493.94 million tons, down 18.10; the coke inventory of 18 ports was 270.90 million tons, up 20.57 [2]. 3.4 National Industrial Situation - The total coking - coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 992.73 million tons, up 7.35; the total inventory of 247 steel mills was 803.79 million tons, up 4.28. The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises were 12.87 days, up 0.12; for 247 steel mills, the available days of coke were 11.17 days, down 0.28. Coking - coal imports were 910.84 million tons, up 172.10; coke and semi - coke exports were 51.00 million tons, down 17.00. Coking - coal production was 4064.38 million tons, down 5.89. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.69%, up 0.24. The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 54.00 yuan/ton, down 11.00. Coke production was 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 [2]. 3.5 National Downstream Situation - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, down 0.56. Crude - steel production was 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On August 1st, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that 6.9 billion yuan of consumer goods trade - in funds would be issued in October, completing the 30 - billion - yuan annual plan. It also planned to regulate enterprise disorderly competition, manage key - industry production capacity, and clean up market - access barriers. The 80 - billion - yuan "two - important" construction project list had been fully issued, and 73.5 billion yuan of central budgetary investment had been basically issued. Trump 2.0 threatened Russia militarily and deployed two US nuclear submarines [2].