NIFD季报：股票市场，贸易战冲击全球股市，银行股新高之后存隐忧

Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, global stock markets experienced volatility, with the Dow Jones up 3.0%, Nasdaq up 4.9%, and DAX up 20.7%[10] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong outperformed, rising by 21.06%, while A-shares showed limited movement with major indices fluctuating less than 2%[10] Key Influencing Factors - The release of China's DeepSeek AI model led to a significant 55.30% increase in related A-share stocks, contrasting with a decline of over 10% in Nasdaq and Taiwan's TSMC stock[15] - The U.S. initiated a global trade war, causing a sharp drop in A-shares by over 7% in early April, but the market rebounded due to increased buybacks and major shareholder purchases[15] Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals and pharmaceutical indices led the market, with non-ferrous metals rising due to a surge in gold prices, which increased from $2,600 to $3,400 per ounce, a rise of over 30%[32] - The real estate sector continued to struggle, with ongoing debt issues and negative growth in financing and new construction areas[34] Risks and Concerns - Bank stocks have risen over 90% since 2023, despite a declining net interest margin, which fell to 1.43% in Q1 2025, below the non-performing loan ratio of 1.51%[37] - The surge in micro-cap stocks, with those under 30 billion yuan rising nearly 30%, raises concerns about market volatility and potential corrections[49] Regulatory Changes - A total of 23 stocks were delisted in the first half of 2025, marking a 64.29% increase from the previous year, indicating stricter enforcement of delisting rules[55]