农产品早报-20250804

Group 1: Overall Information - The report is an agricultural products morning report released by the Research Center's Agricultural Products Team on August 4, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Corn and Starch Price Data - For corn, from July 28 to August 1, prices in Changchun remained stable at 2230, in Jinzhou remained at 2290, in Weifang decreased by 6 to 2458, and in Shekou increased by 10 to 2420. The basis changed by -9, trade profit increased by 10, and import profit decreased by 5 [2] - For starch, from July 28 to August 1, prices in Heilongjiang remained at 2900, in Weifang remained at 2980, the basis increased by 62, and processing profit remained unchanged [2] Market Analysis - Corn: Reserve imported corn is being continuously auctioned, with this week's成交 rates at 27% and 31%. The import auction aims to ease supply shortages without suppressing domestic prices. With low成交 rates, the supply increase is limited. Currently, supply relies on old - crop stocks and wheat substitution. In the short - term, with a tight balance sheet, port corn inventories are decreasing, supporting current prices. In the long - term, if import profitability persists, it may increase future import orders, and new - crop supply may pressure prices [3] - Starch: This week, starch prices diverged, with a decrease in Northeast China and an increase in Shandong. Inventory remains high. In the short - term, prices fluctuate with raw material prices, and after a correction, there is support for a weak rebound. In the long - term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs are bearish for starch prices [3] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From July 28 to August 1, the price in Liuzhou decreased by 70 to 6030, in Nanning remained unchanged at 6030, and in Kunming decreased by 20 to 5880. The basis in Liuzhou decreased by 10, import profit from Thailand decreased by 15, from Brazil decreased by 15, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 30 [6] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, pressuring sugar prices. Due to lower - than - expected yields and sugar extraction rates, there may be a corrective rebound. Domestically, prices follow international trends, but the amplitude is smaller. With a large amount of imported sugar arriving, there is pressure on the futures price [6] Group 4: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Data - From July 28 to August 1, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 15 to 14785, the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 133, the price of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 100 to 20700, the import profit of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 211, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 84 [7] Market Analysis - With a weakening commodity atmosphere, there was a strong backwardation in cotton futures. Now that the 9 - 1 spread has reached - 200, it's advisable to reduce positions. Future prices depend on downstream demand recovery, which may be reflected in mid - to late August [7] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From July 28 to August 1, prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, and Henan remained unchanged, while in Hubei it decreased by 0.11 to 3.60. The basis increased by 58 to 229, and the price of substitute products such as white - feather broilers and yellow - feather broilers remained unchanged, while the price of live pigs increased by 0.15 to 20.60 [9] Market Analysis - In mid - July, high temperatures and post - plum - rain restocking drove up egg prices, but later, cold - storage egg release and unfavorable weather led to a price correction. Starting from mid - August, holiday and school - opening demand may drive prices up again, but high inventory may limit the increase [10] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From July 28 to August 1, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7800. The national inventory increased by 62 to 57.61, Shandong inventory increased by 7 to 35.27, and Shaanxi inventory increased by 56 to 15.34. The 1 - month basis increased by 115 to 115, the 5 - month basis increased by 107 to 0, and the 10 - month basis increased by 294 to 42 [12][13] Market Analysis - In the new crop season, apples are in the growth stage. Western regions may have increased yields but face tree - felling issues, and Shandong may have a 20% yield reduction. Consumption is in the off - season, with the lowest inventory in five years and slower de - stocking [13] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - From July 28 to August 1, prices in Henan Kaifeng increased by 0.10 to 14.38, in Hubei Xiangyang increased by 0.10 to 14.35, in Shandong Linyi increased by 0.15 to 14.37, in Anhui Hefei increased by 0.25 to 14.70, in Jiangsu Nantong increased by 0.20 to 14.80, and the basis increased by 120 to 325 [13] Market Analysis - There is insufficient capacity reduction, and long - term supply pressure persists. Futures prices are affected by seasonal expectations and policy hopes, but now they are trading based on weak reality. Short - term spot prices are in a weak oscillation, with pressure in August but also seasonal support later [13]