芳烃橡胶早报-20250804

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, it will maintain a stockpiling state but the absolute inventory level is not high. The current low processing fee for spot has lasted for some time. With limited inventory pressure on filament and continuous inventory reduction of bottle - grade polyester at low operation rates, the polyester operation rate is expected to stabilize and has upward potential. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees by buying at low prices [2]. - For MEG, the short - term stockpiling pressure is not high, and the port inventory is expected to remain low. The situation is good and the profit is not low. In the long term, there is an inventory accumulation expectation due to the restart of overseas plants and the further increase of coal - based operation rate, but the valuation is greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side. It should be regarded as a wide - range fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of satellites [4]. - For polyester staple fiber, as the finished product inventory of polyester yarn is reduced, the downstream operation rate may increase. Although the supply of staple fiber itself may also increase, considering that the processing fee on the futures market is still in a low range, attention can be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees by buying at low prices [4]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable and the absolute level is not high, but there is no seasonal inventory reduction. The price of Thai cup rubber rebounds due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [4]. Summary by Category PTA - Price and Margin Changes: From July 28 to August 1, the price of crude oil fluctuated between 69.7 - 73.2, the price of PX CFR changed from 851 to 846, and the PTA processing margin decreased from 272.0 to 242.0 [2]. - Device Changes: Yisheng New Materials' 7.2 - million - ton plant reduced its operation rate to 80% - 90%, and Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton plant was under maintenance [2]. - Market Situation: The operation rate of proximal TA existing plants decreased significantly while new plants started production. The polyester operation rate declined slightly, inventory continued to accumulate, the basis was weakly maintained, and the spot processing fee decreased again. The domestic operation rate of PX increased slightly, there were some unexpected situations overseas, the PXN weakened significantly, the profitability of disproportionation and isomerization declined, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia continued to shrink [2]. MEG - Price and Margin Changes: From July 28 to August 1, the MEG outer - market price decreased from 528 to 523, and the MEG coal - based profit decreased from 684 to 506 [4]. - Device Changes: The 300,000 - ton plant of Inner Mongolia Tongliao stopped production; the 400,000 - ton plant of Xinjiang Guanghui restarted; the 300,000 - ton plant of Inner Mongolia Zhonghuaxue restarted [4]. - Market Situation: Proximal domestic coal - based plants had some maintenance, and the operation rate decreased slightly. Affected by the weather during the week, both port arrivals and pick - ups decreased significantly, and the port inventory still decreased slightly. The downstream stocking level decreased significantly, the basis strengthened slightly, and the profit declined from the high level [4]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Margin Changes: From July 28 to August 1, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6675 to 6600, and the short - fiber profit increased from 47 to 21 [4]. - Device Changes: The small - line plant of Xianglu was under maintenance, and the operation rate decreased slightly to 90.3% [4]. - Market Situation: The operation rate of polyester yarn remained stable, the raw material stocking decreased, the finished product inventory decreased, and the profit declined [4]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - Price Changes: From July 28 to August 1, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber decreased from 1800 to 1720, and the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased from 14665 to 13910 [4]. - Market Situation: The national explicit inventory remained stable, the absolute level was not high, but there was no seasonal inventory reduction. The price of Thai cup rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping [4]. Styrene - Price and Margin Changes: From July 28 to August 1, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) increased from 751 to 764, and the styrene domestic profit decreased from - 147 to - 218 [6]. - Market Situation: The prices of PS (East China transparent benzene) and ABS (0215A) remained stable at 7830 and 10000 respectively, and the Asian price difference (pure benzene - naphtha) decreased from 160 to 138 [6].