Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures Market: BU2509 opened at 3658 yuan/ton, closed at 3573 yuan/ton, with a high of 3659 yuan/ton, a low of 3566 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.16%, and a trading volume of 16.91 million lots. BU2510 opened at 3657 yuan/ton, closed at 3556 yuan/ton, with a high of 3657 yuan/ton, a low of 3547 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.39%, and a trading volume of 14.03 million lots [6] - Spot Market: Asphalt spot prices in the northwest and northeast markets rose slightly, while those in the north China, Shandong, south China, and Sichuan-Chongqing regions fell. The east China market remained stable. Crude oil and asphalt futures prices dropped, which had a significant negative impact on the spot market [6] Supply and Demand - Supply: Qilu Petrochemical, Henan Fengli, and Jiangsu Xinhai will resume asphalt production in early August, and the plant operating rate will rebound. The total asphalt production plan of domestic refineries in August is 2.433 million tons [6] - Demand: Demand is expected to continue to recover, but the extent remains to be seen. In August, precipitation in north China and northeast China is still relatively high, but the overall weather conditions have improved. Coupled with the rush demand for some projects, it is generally beneficial to demand [6] Operation Suggestions - The growth of asphalt supply is relatively limited, and demand is in the peak season, but the actual performance remains to be seen. Considering the performance of oil prices, it is expected that the unilateral price of asphalt will mainly fluctuate. In terms of arbitrage, consider going long on the crack spread after the upward trend of oil prices slows down [7] Group 3: Industry News - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3580 - 3630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Due to the large planned production volume of Guangzhou Petrochemical, the road and shipping prices of Guangzhou Petrochemical were lowered by 50 yuan/ton over the weekend. Today, it mainly shipped by sea, and there was no road transport resource available for circulation. In addition, the decline in asphalt futures led to the start of transactions of low-price contracts of spot-futures traders in the south China social inventory, driving the spot price in south China to decline slightly [8] - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3590 - 4070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The significant decline in international oil prices led to the decline of asphalt futures, which had a negative impact on the spot market from the cost side and market sentiment. Although the trading in the spot market continued to be stable, the quotes of some refineries and traders still decreased, resulting in the decline of the spot price in the Shandong market [8] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides data on asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt crack spread, asphalt social inventory, Shandong asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][14][17][20]
建信期货沥青日报-20250805
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-05 01:44