建信期货油脂日报-20250805

Group 1: Basic Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Research analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Variety | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 60954 | 8894 | 8918 | 8926 | 8746 | 8838 | -56 | -0.63% | 611600 | 350396 | -43745 | | P2601 | 8914 | 8946 | 8946 | 8756 | 8832 | -82 | -0.92% | 187926 | 207992 | 6902 | | Y2509 | 8228 | 8274 | 8296 | 8210 | 8250 | 22 | 0.27% | 310265 | 474605 | -25151 | | Y2601 | 8186 | 8230 | 8256 | 8154 | 8214 | 28 | 0.34% | 205137 | 468687 | 14291 | | OI2509 | 8495 | 9516 | 9545 | 9442 | 9542 | 41 | 0.49% | 218228 | 181646 | -7467 | | OI2601 | 9434 | 9462 | 9478 | 9383 | 9472 | 38 | 0.40% | 76818 | 133755 | 5894 | [7] Operation Suggestions - The short - term adjustment of the three major domestic oils may occur at any time, but the adjustment space is limited. In the medium and long term, it is advisable to buy on dips. - The spot basis of the three major domestic oils has little room for significant downward adjustment in the later stage. It is advisable to appropriately buy the far - month basis. [8] Core View - In the morning, the performance of oils was poor, mainly dragged down by the decline of CBOT soybean oil and the weakness of international crude oil. - The palm oil production in Malaysia in July may be better than expected, but the export is still very weak, which means that the palm oil inventory at the end of July may exceed 2.1 million tons. According to shipping survey agencies, the export of Malaysian palm oil in July decreased by 2.4% - 9.6% month - on - month. The increase in production and weak demand put pressure on palm oil prices. - The near - term supply of rapeseed oil is sufficient, but the fewer purchases of far - month cargoes support the futures price. - Due to the still abundant supply of Brazilian soybeans at present, factories will maintain a high operating rate, and the inventory of factory soybean oil may still increase, which drags down the rise of soybean oil, but the long - term outlook is positive. [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to SPPOMA data, the palm oil production in Malaysia in July increased by 7.07% month - on - month, among which the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit increased by 7.19% month - on - month, and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreased by 0.02% month - on - month. - According to SPPOMA data, from July 1 - 25, the palm oil production in Malaysia increased by 5.52% month - on - month, among which the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit increased by 6.08% month - on - month, and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreased by 0.1% month - on - month. - According to AmSpec, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil in July was 1,163,216 tons, a 9.6% decrease compared with 1,286,461 tons in June. According to ITS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil in July was 1,289,727 tons, a 2.4% decrease compared with 1,320,914 tons in June. [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, East China's fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Malaysian ringgit, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [11][19][21][23][26][30]