建信期货铝日报-20250805

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating was provided in the report. Core View - On the 4th, Shanghai aluminum oscillated slightly stronger. The main contract 2509 slightly rose 0.24% to close at 20,525. The total open interest of the index decreased by 4,596 to 573,219 lots, and the 08 - 09 premium was reported at 50. The cast aluminum alloy followed Shanghai aluminum to oscillate stronger, and the AD - AL negative spread was reported at -515. In August, the supply of bauxite tends to tighten due to the rainy season in Guinea, but high port inventories and the resumption of some停产 mines suggest limited shortages, with ore prices mainly at the bottom. The stimulus from the anti - involution policy in the surplus industry for related industrial products has temporarily ended, and the alumina surplus pattern remains unchanged. Before the policy is clear, one should be cautious about the upside space of alumina and can short - sell at high points. In the cast aluminum sector, it is currently the off - season for the automotive industry, with weakening demand and a shortage of scrap aluminum supply. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, cast aluminum continues to fluctuate in a range following Shanghai aluminum, and the AD - AL maintains a low negative spread structure. At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remains high, the demand side is still sluggish in the off - season, and inventories show a seasonal increase. The profits of smelting enterprises have declined but are still substantial. Currently, macro - sentiment dominates the aluminum market. The fall of the US dollar and domestic policy expectations support the sector to be stronger, but the off - season continues, and one can appropriately short at high points [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai aluminum's main contract 2509 slightly rose 0.24% to 20,525, with the index's total open interest decreasing by 4,596 to 573,219 lots, and the 08 - 09 premium at 50. The AD - AL negative spread was -515 [8] - Bauxite supply may tighten in August due to the rainy season in Guinea, but high port inventories and mine restarts limit shortages, with ore prices at the bottom [8] - Alumina's surplus pattern remains unchanged. Before policy clarity, be cautious about the upside space and consider short - selling at high points [8] - Cast aluminum is in the automotive off - season, with weak supply and demand, following Shanghai aluminum in range - bound fluctuations and maintaining a low negative spread [8] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is high, demand is sluggish in the off - season, inventories are seasonally increasing, and smelting profits have declined but are still high. Macro - sentiment dominates, and one can short at high points [8] 2. Industry News - Ghana cancelled a $1.2 billion bauxite agreement with Rocksure International and is seeking cooperation with a large overseas company. Potential partners include EGA or a Chinese company. Ghana has about 900 million tons of bauxite, ranking seventh globally [9] - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a 13.8% month - on - month decrease and a 58.7% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative import was about 1.2499 million tons, a 2.5% year - on - year increase. In June, exports were about 19,600 tons, a 39.5% month - on - month decrease and a 179.4% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative export was about 86,600 tons, a 206.6% year - on - year increase. In June, the net import was 172,700 tons, a 9.4% month - on - month decrease and a 51.3% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative net import was about 1.1633 million tons, a 2.3% year - on - year decrease [10] - On July 17, 2025, Guinea revoked the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. These are long - idle mining rights with no actual mining activities [10] - Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to restart in mid - 2026, with an expected loss of up to $110 million. The restart was postponed due to a national power outage in April. The smelter has a capacity of 228,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum [10][11]