建信期货国债日报-20250805

1. Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bond and Container Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [3] 2. Core View - In the short - term, the market is concerned about the VAT collection on the interest income of newly - issued treasury bonds after August 8. Old bonds have a tax - exemption advantage, so there may be buying demand this week. After the tax is levied, new bond yields may rise. The impact on treasury bond futures is limited if the CTD remains old bonds. In the long - term, the tax mainly affects long - term varieties. Since July, the market risk appetite has increased, putting pressure on the bond market. However, the bond market has not panicked. The sustainability of the stock and commodity market rally is questionable, and the bond market may rebound. The bull - market foundation of the bond market remains unchanged, but attention should be paid to economic data in August and the implementation of anti - involution measures [11][12] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: On Monday, there was buying in the bond market in the morning after the announcement of VAT on new - issued treasury bond interest income on Friday night. However, the rising A - share market in the afternoon suppressed the bond market, and the gains of treasury bond futures narrowed [8] - Interest Rates of Spot Bonds: The yields of short - term spot bonds decreased, while long - term ones increased by 1 - 2bp. The yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond 250011 rose 1.25bp to 1.7075% at 16:30 [9] - Funding Market: At the beginning of the month, funds were stable and loose. There were 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 544.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 49 billion yuan. Short - term funding rates fluctuated slightly, with the overnight weighted inter - bank deposit rate around 1.315%, and the 7 - day rate rising 2.76bp to 1.45%. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate was stable around 1.6% [10] 3.2 Industry News - Tax Policy: Starting from August 8, 2025, VAT will be levied on the interest income of newly - issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds. Interest income from previously issued bonds will remain tax - exempt until maturity. Natural persons buying bonds with a monthly limit of no more than 100,000 yuan will be exempt from VAT on interest income until December 31, 2027 [13] - Policy Tools and Bond Issuance: The National Development and Reform Commission will speed up the approval of new policy - based financial instruments. The issuance of government bonds, including ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and new special bonds, is expected to accelerate, and infrastructure investment is expected to rebound in the second half of the year [13] - Multi - department Measures: Multiple departments have deployed key work for the second half of the year, with releasing domestic demand potential, promoting the integration of "two innovations", and capacity governance in key industries as the main focuses. Policies such as setting up new policy - based financial instruments are expected to be implemented [14] 3.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures: Data on trading, including opening, closing, and settlement prices, trading volume, and open interest, are provided for various treasury bond futures contracts on August 4 [6] - Money Market: Information on SHIBOR term - structure changes, SHIBOR trends, and inter - bank repurchase rates is presented [28][32] - Derivatives Market: Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves are shown [34]