Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The polysilicon market had a significant decline in multiple contracts. The PS2509 contract closed at 49,130 yuan/ton, with a decline of 7.81%. Its trading volume was 565,838 lots, and the open interest was 126,989 lots, with a net decrease of 37,501 lots. In July, polysilicon supply will increase to 107,600 tons, and downstream cell production scheduling is around 50GW. The supply - demand relationship maintains a loose balance without de - stocking drivers. The June photovoltaic installation volume (14GW) confirms the weak demand expectation in the second half of the year, and the total terminal demand will drop to around 45GW. Affected by the policy, the previous trends of related varieties have started to diverge. Polysilicon is supported by the comprehensive cost and spot price, so although the price weakens during trading, the decline space is limited. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate in a wide range [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The polysilicon PS2509 contract closed at 49,130 yuan/ton, down 7.81%. The trading volume was 565,838 lots, and the open interest was 126,989 lots, with a net decrease of 37,501 lots [4]. - Future Outlook: In July, polysilicon supply will reach 107,600 tons, and downstream cell production scheduling is about 50GW. The supply - demand is in a loose balance. The June photovoltaic installation volume (14GW) indicates weak demand in the second half of the year, and the total terminal demand will drop to around 45GW. Polysilicon is supported by cost and spot price, and will mainly fluctuate widely in the short term [4]. 3.2 Market News - On August 4, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,200 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - In June 2025, China's industrial silicon exports reached 68,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23% and a year - on - year increase of 12%, hitting a 18 - month high. Exports to Southeast Asia accounted for 58%, with Thailand (21,000 tons) and Malaysia (18,000 tons) as the main incremental markets for local photovoltaic module production [5]. - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. The cumulative photovoltaic installation volume from January to June was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%, but the domestic installation volume in June was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5].
建信期货多晶硅日报-20250805
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-05 01:49