Report Date - The report date is August 05, 2025 [2] Research Team - The research team includes Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), and Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices continued to be weak. The closing price of Si2509 was 8360 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.46%. The trading volume was 187,014 lots, and the open interest was 176,164 lots, with a net decrease of 18,176 lots [4] - Industrial silicon spot prices began to decline. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8700 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was 8750 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 9400 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9650 yuan/ton [4] Future Outlook - The supply - demand relationship has not improved. The resumption of production in the southwest offset the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang. The production in July increased to 330,000 tons compared with the forecast. The operating rate of polysilicon increased slightly, and the capacity to increase production of silicone was limited in the short term [4] - After the policy - driven market sentiment cooled down, the previous trends of the same - sector varieties began to diverge. There was no clear policy for industrial silicon, and the spot price began to weaken. The hourly chart broke through the support level, forming a short - term bearish trend and reaching a low of 8225 yuan/ton. It is expected to be mainly in a weak short - term oscillation [4] Market News - On August 04, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,312 lots, a net decrease of 204 lots compared with the previous trading day [5] - The export volume of industrial silicon in June was 68,323 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to June was 338,900 tons, with an average monthly export volume of 56,500 tons [5] - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%; the installed capacity of wind power was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.7% [5] - From January to June, the cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment nationwide were 1504 hours, 162 hours less than the same period last year. In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was only 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% and a month - on - month decrease of 85% [5]
建信期货工业硅日报-20250805
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-05 01:49