Report Overview - Report Date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Product Research Team [4] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The inventory of laying hens is on an upward trend. As of the end of July, the monthly inventory of laying hens in China was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The spot price of eggs continued to decline over the weekend, and the market sentiment may remain sluggish in the short term, squeezing the premium of futures. Although there is a seasonal adjustment in the spot market, according to historical patterns, the spot price is expected to rise at least once in August, with the expected target price adjusted down to 3.6 - 3.8 yuan per catty. It is not recommended to buy the dip in the 09 contract in the short term, and the contracts for the fourth quarter are currently at a historically low valuation, with potential for an upward movement during the second wave of the peak - season price increase, but timing is crucial, and investors should mainly adopt a band - trading strategy [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The prices of egg futures contracts generally declined. The 2508 contract closed at 3075, down 196 or 5.99% from the previous settlement; the 2509 contract closed at 3360, down 141 or 4.03%; the 2510 contract closed at 3243, down 51 or 1.55%. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.98 yuan per catty, down 0.17 yuan from the previous day, and in the main consuming areas was 3.31 yuan per catty, down 0.12 yuan [7]. - Operation Suggestions: Do not buy the dip in the 09 contract in the short term. For the fourth - quarter contracts, adopt a wait - and - see approach and mainly use a band - trading strategy [8]. 2. Industry News - Laying Hen Inventory: As of the end of July, the monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.356 billion, showing continuous growth for 7 months, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [8][9]. - Chick Hatch Quantity: In July, the monthly hatch quantity of chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, less than that in June and the same period in 2024. It was the first year - on - year decrease in the past two months [9]. - Hen Culling: From the first to the third week of July, the culling volume was 13.01 million, 13.38 million, and 15.05 million respectively. The culling volume decreased gradually after June, and the average culling age as of July 31 was 507 days [10]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg - chicken farming profits, the basis of the 08 contract, the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts, the average price in the main producing areas, and the seasonal trend of the 09 contract [16][14][11]
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250805
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-05 01:49