建信期货原油日报-20250805

Report Information - Report Name: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - OPEC+ announced an increase of 550,000 barrels per day, and the significant downward revision of US non - farm payroll data led to a sharp decline in oil prices. The supply - demand fundamentals are generally neutral, with limited production growth in OPEC+ and the US, and demand slightly underperforming expectations during the peak season [6]. - In the medium term, as demand moves into the off - season, oil prices may fall again. Due to the fermentation of negative macro - sentiment, it is advisable to consider pre - arranging short positions after a rebound [7]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: WTI closed at $67.26 per barrel, down 2.89%; Brent closed at $69.52 per barrel, down 3.04%; SC closed at 514.3 yuan per barrel, down 2.61%. The trading volumes of WTI, Brent, and SC were 33.17 million hands, 41.80 million hands, and 14.58 million hands respectively [6]. - Analysis: OPEC+ production increase and US non - farm payroll data revision affected prices. The supply - demand fundamentals are neutral, and oil prices are driven by the macro - level and geopolitical factors. In the medium term, demand will enter the off - season [6][7]. - Operation Suggestion: Consider pre - arranging short positions after a rebound due to negative macro - sentiment [7]. 2. Industry News - OPEC+ members agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, completing the supply recovery plan one year ahead of schedule. Chevron expects Venezuelan oil to enter the market. Goldman Sachs maintains the 2026 Brent crude price forecast at $56 per barrel. There is a dispute between the US and India over Indian oil purchases from Russia [11]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents data on global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, Dtd Brent prices, and US crude oil production growth rate, with data sources including Wind, CFTC, EIA, and Bloomberg [10][13][16]