沪锌期货早报-20250805

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that the short - term trend of Shanghai Zinc ZN2509 is expected to be oscillating and weakening. The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc oscillating, with the price closing above the long - term moving average with strong support from the moving average. The short - term indicator KDJ is declining and operating in the weak area, and the trend indicator shows that the bullish force is rising while the bearish force is falling, with the forces of both sides starting to be in a stalemate. [2][19] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, which is considered bullish. [2] - The basis is 15, which is neutral. [2] - On August 4, LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,825 tons to 97,000 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrant decreased by 75 tons to 14,907 tons, which is considered bullish. [2] - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed an oscillating trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is considered bearish. [2] - The main positions are net long, with a shift from short to long, which is considered bullish. [2] 3.2 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Market on August 4 - There are multiple delivery months for zinc futures, such as 2508, 2509, etc. For example, in the 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 22,345, the opening price was 22,225, the highest price was 22,270, the lowest price was 22,125, the closing price was 22,255, and the settlement reference price was 22,205, with a decline of 90 (first type of change) and 140 (second type of change). The trading volume was 115,733 lots, the trading value was 1,285,092,980 yuan, and the open interest was 102,725 lots, a decrease of 5,359 lots. [3] 3.3 Domestic Spot Market on August 4 - The prices of various zinc - related products showed different changes. For example, the price of zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 16,930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot in Gengshi was 22,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheet in Tiantian was 4,080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipe in Tiantian was 4,483 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton. The prices of zinc oxide in Taizhou and secondary zinc oxide in Cailiao remained unchanged at 20,700 yuan/ton and 7,761 yuan/ton respectively. [4] 3.4 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (July 24 - August 4, 2025) - The total inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 80,800 tons on July 24 to 87,200 tons on August 4. Compared with July 28, the inventory increased by 3,600 tons, and compared with July 31, it increased by 2,800 tons. [5] 3.5 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on August 4 - The total SHFE zinc warrant was 14,907 tons, a decrease of 75 tons compared to the previous day. Different regions had different warrant holdings, such as 25 tons in Shanghai, 3,238 tons in Zhongchu Jingshi in Guangdong, etc. [6] 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on August 4 - The previous day's inventory was 100,825 tons, with 0 tons received into the warehouse and 3,975 tons withdrawn from the warehouse, resulting in a current inventory of 96,850 tons, a decrease of 3,975 tons. The registered warrants were 57,075 tons, the cancelled warrants were 43,750 tons, and the cancellation ratio was 43.39%. [7] 3.7 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on August 4 - The prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major cities showed a decline. For example, the price in Jiyuan, Kunming, etc. was 16,930 yuan/ton, with a decline of 90 yuan/ton. [9] 3.8 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on August 4 - The prices of 0 zinc ingot from different smelters all decreased by 130 yuan/ton. For example, the price from Hunan Zhuzhou was 22,530 yuan/ton, from Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry was 22,670 yuan/ton, etc. [13] 3.9 June 2025 Domestic Refined Zinc Production - The planned production value in June was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production in July was 470,300 tons. [15] 3.10 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Market on August 4 - The processing fees of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions vary. For example, in Fift 14F, the average processing fee was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and in some regions, it increased or remained unchanged. The average processing fee for imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 70 US dollars/kiloton, an increase of 11 US dollars/kiloton. [17] 3.11 SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on August 4 - In the zn2509 contract, in terms of trading volume, CITIC Futures ranked first with 36,893 lots, an increase of 5,050 lots compared to the previous day. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 8,994 lots, a decrease of 411 lots. In terms of short positions, CITIC Futures also ranked first with 10,617 lots, a decrease of 1,648 lots. [18]