Report Overview - The report is a polyolefin morning report dated August 5, 2025, focusing on LLDPE and PP [2] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Factors - In July, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a plan to adjust the structure of key industries. However, the short - term price increase driven by anti - involution sentiment and oil prices have declined. Currently, the spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7300 (-40), with a neutral overall fundamental situation [4] Basis - The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 21, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.3%, considered neutral [4] Inventory - The comprehensive PE inventory is 49.1 million tons (-7.2), also neutral [4] Market Trends - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend. The main position of LLDPE is net short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [4] Expectations - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. The price increase driven by macro - stability policies has subsided, it is the off - season for agricultural film demand, downstream demand is weak, and industrial inventory is neutral [4] Influential Factors - Bullish factor: cost support; Bearish factor: weak demand. The main logic is based on cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [6] PP Analysis Fundamental Factors - Similar to LLDPE, in July, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range. The short - term price increase and oil prices have declined. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7150 (-0), with a neutral overall fundamental situation. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak due to summer weather [7] Basis - The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 76, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.1%, considered bullish [7] Inventory - The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.5 million tons (-1.6), showing a bearish trend [7] Market Trends - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend. The main position of PP is net short, with an increase in short positions, also bearish [7] Expectations - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. The price increase driven by macro - stability policies has subsided, downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak, and industrial inventory is neutral [7] Influential Factors - Bullish factor: cost support; Bearish factor: weak demand. The main logic is based on cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [9] Supply - Demand Balance Tables Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polyethylene has been increasing, with a projected 20.5% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has been gradually decreasing, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated [15] Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polypropylene has also been increasing, with an expected 11.0% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has shown some fluctuations, and the consumption growth rate has generally been positive [17]
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250805
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-05 01:59