大越期货沪铝早报-20250805

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral due to capacity expansion control by carbon neutrality, weak downstream demand, and a continued sluggish real estate market, along with short - term volatile macro - sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a neutral situation with the spot price at 20470 and a basis of - 55, indicating a discount to the futures [2]. - The inventory of SHFE aluminum increased by 1737 tons to 117527 tons last week, presenting a neutral state [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, showing a bearish trend [2]. - The main positions are net long, but the long positions are decreasing, showing a bullish bias [2]. - In the long - term, carbon neutrality will drive changes in the aluminum industry and is bullish for aluminum prices. With a mix of bullish and bearish factors, aluminum prices will fluctuate [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall situation of aluminum is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, and its price is expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely to be bullish: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion; the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affects Russian aluminum supply; and there is a possibility of interest rate cuts [3]. - Likely to be bearish: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products has been cancelled [3]. Daily Summary - Spot prices: The Shanghai spot price was 70770, down 375; the South China spot price was 70690, down 450; and the Yangtze River spot price was 70870, down 400 [4]. - Inventory: The SHFE warehouse receipt inventory was 70798 tons, an increase of 699 tons; the LME inventory was 74750 tons, a decrease of 425 tons; the SHFE inventory (weekly) was 136300 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - From 2018 - 2024, the supply - demand balance of aluminum in China has fluctuated. There were supply shortages in 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023, with shortages of 47.61, 68.61, 14.2, 29.98, and 4.31 million tons respectively. There was a small supply surplus of 1.3 million tons in 2020, and a surplus of 15 million tons is expected in 2024 [24].