沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250805

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - 沪镍: The Shanghai nickel contract 2509 is expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average. The overall situation is bearish in the medium - to - long term due to an oversupply pattern, although there are some short - term influencing factors. [3][4] - 不锈钢: The stainless steel contract 2509 is also expected to fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average. The short - term situation is neutral, mainly affected by the off - season consumption and cost factors. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views - 沪镍 - 基本面: The external market rebounded but was pressured by the 20 - day moving average. Ore prices and nickel - iron prices were weakly stable, with some nickel - iron quotes rising. The cost line remained low. Stainless steel is in the traditional off - season in July and August, and the inventory of the 300 - series increased slightly this week. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the loading volume of ternary batteries decreased, leading to a decline in nickel demand in the new energy sector. The medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged, which is bearish. [4] - 基差: The spot price was 121,250, and the basis was 620, which is bullish. [4] - 库存: LME inventory was 209,082 (unchanged), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 21,170, a decrease of 204, which is bearish. [4] - 盘面: The closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, which is neutral. [4] - 主力持仓: The main players held a net short position, and short positions increased, which is bearish. [4] - 不锈钢 - 基本面: The spot stainless steel price remained flat. Short - term nickel ore prices were weakly stable, ocean freight was firm, and nickel - iron prices were weakly stable with some slight increases. The cost line remained low, and stainless steel consumption entered the off - season, which is neutral. [6] - 基差: The average stainless steel price was 13,675, and the basis was 750, which is bullish. [6] - 库存: The futures warehouse receipts were 102,925, a decrease of 61, which is bearish. [6] - 盘面: The closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, which is bullish. [6] 多空因素 - 利多因素: Expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" and anti - involution policies. [9] - 利空因素: Domestic production continued to rise significantly year - on - year, there were no new demand growth points, and the long - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged; nickel ore and nickel - iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line remained low; the substitution ratio of ternary batteries increased. [9] 镍、不锈钢价格基本概览 - 期货 prices: On August 4th, the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,630 (an increase of 860 compared to August 1st), the LME nickel was 15,105 (an increase of 85), the stainless steel main contract was 12,925 (an increase of 85). [14] - Spot prices: On August 4th, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,250 (an increase of 600), 1 Jinchuan nickel was 122,500 (an increase of 650), 1 imported nickel was 120,500 (an increase of 550), and nickel beans were 119,700 (an increase of 550). Cold - rolled coil prices in different regions remained unchanged. [14] 镍仓单、库存 - As of August 1st, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 25,750 tons, of which the futures inventory was 21,374 tons, an increase of 299 tons and a decrease of 573 tons respectively. On August 4th, LME nickel inventory was 209,082 (unchanged), Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,170 (a decrease of 204), and the total inventory was 230,252 (a decrease of 204). [16][17] 不锈钢仓单、库存 - On August 1st, the inventory in Wuxi was 61,950 tons, in Foshan was 324,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,111,200 tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons month - on - month. The inventory of the 300 - series was 676,700 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons month - on - month. On August 4th, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 102,925, a decrease of 61. [20][21] 镍矿、镍铁价格 - 镍矿: The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 58 US dollars per wet ton, and (Ni0.9%) was 29 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged. Ocean freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 11.5 US dollars per ton, and to Tianjin Port was 12.5 US dollars per ton, both unchanged. [25] - 镍铁: The price of high - nickel (8 - 12) was 914 yuan per nickel point (an increase of 1.5), and low - nickel (below 2) was 3,400 yuan per ton (an increase of 100). [25] 不锈钢生产成本 - The traditional cost was 12,800, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,473, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,336. [27] 镍进口成本测算 - The imported price was converted to 122,034 yuan per ton. [30]