Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 4, the main contracts of coke and coking coal futures rebounded significantly after hitting lows, with coking coal showing a larger increase. The spot market of double - coking is lagging behind the futures market, resulting in a significant difference in the trend between the two. Considering the tight supply in the double - coking spot market driven by supply - demand relationship, there is still room for price increase. It is possible that the phased decline of double - coking futures has ended, and then it may turn into a volatile trend, waiting for further development of the supply - demand relationship after the spot market price increase to determine the direction [5][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures Market: On August 4, the main contract J2509 of coke futures had a previous closing price of 1585 yuan/ton, an opening price of 1585.5 yuan/ton, a highest price of 1626 yuan/ton, a lowest price of 1551.5 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 1615 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.15%. The trading volume was 30,451 lots, the open interest was 25,782 lots, a decrease of 2,331 lots, and the capital outflow was 0.58 billion yuan. The main contract JM2601 of coking coal futures had a previous closing price of 1092.5 yuan/ton, an opening price of 1099.5 yuan/ton, a highest price of 1143 yuan/ton, a lowest price of 1066.5 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 1141 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2.33%. The trading volume was 1,908,758 lots, the open interest was 487,977 lots, an increase of 59,997 lots, and the capital inflow was 10.71 billion yuan [5]. - Spot Market: On August 4, the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1420 yuan/ton, with no change. In Tangshan, it was 1350 yuan/ton, also with no change. For low - sulfur main coking coal, the price in Tangshan increased by 180 yuan/ton to 1485 yuan/ton, in Linfen it remained unchanged at 1500 yuan/ton, etc. [8]. - Technical Indicators: On August 4, the daily KDJ indicator of the coke 2509 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J - value turning up slightly, while the K - value and D - value continued to decline. The daily KDJ indicator of the coking coal 2601 contract continued to decline. The daily MACD indicator of the coke 2509 contract had a dead - cross the previous day and the green bar enlarged; the daily MACD indicator of the coking coal 2601 contract had a dead - cross [8]. 3.2 Future Outlook - Policy: The National Energy Administration will guide coal - producing provinces and enterprises to ensure coal production and supply, and conduct production inspections to prevent over - capacity production [10]. - Fundamentals: For coke, the output of independent coking plants decreased slightly after two consecutive weeks of increase, and the output of steel mills reached a new low since late February. The port coke inventory reached a new high since early June, while the inventories of steel mills and coking plants reached new lows since late December last year. The profit per ton of coke has been in the red for 11 consecutive weeks, and the fifth round of spot price increase for coke was proposed on August 3. For coking coal, from January to June, the import volume of coking coal in China still showed a large year - on - year decline of 7.4%. The inventories of raw coal and clean coal in coal washing plants have dropped significantly in the past 7 weeks, with declines of 17.6% and 33.8% respectively. The inventory of independent coking plants has increased for 6 consecutive weeks and reached a new high since early February, the port inventory reached a new low since early August last year, and the steel mill inventory has increased for 3 consecutive weeks. With the continuous increase of steel mill inventory, the replenishment of coking plants has significantly cooled down [10]. 3.3 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission has completed the allocation of the third batch of 69 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds for consumer goods trade - in this year, and will allocate the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan in October to complete the annual allocation plan of 300 billion yuan. The 800 billion yuan list of "two major" construction projects and 735 billion yuan of central budgetary investment have been basically allocated. The NDRC will promote project construction and strengthen supervision [12]. - From July 19 - 25, the average coal price in Inner Mongolia was 730.96 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.8%. Domestic coal production capacity is continuously released, and overseas coal imports have increased significantly year - on - year [14]. - In the first half of 2025, Shaanxi Coal Industry Group achieved an operating income of 227.5 billion yuan and a profit of 18.04 billion yuan, with coal production reaching 129 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%, and power generation reaching 27.27 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [14]. - Henan Dayou Energy Co., Ltd. has transferred its coal production capacity replacement indicators to Shenmu Shengfu Mining Co., Ltd. for a total transaction price of 1.01132 billion yuan [14]. - The "Xinjiang Coal to Jiangsu" railway direct - access channel of Xinjiang Energy Group has been successfully connected. The comprehensive shipping cost has decreased by 20% compared with the beginning of the year, and it aims to achieve an annual sales volume of 3 million tons in the East China region this year [14]. - In July, the single - month power sales of State Grid Shandong Electric Power exceeded 62.12 billion kWh for the first time, a year - on - year increase of 20.19% [15]. - As of July 30, Gansu has signed new inter - provincial power transmission agreements with 9 provinces and cities this year, and the cross - provincial and cross - regional power transmission transaction volume has reached 61.742 billion kWh, of which new energy accounts for 57.57%, a year - on - year increase of 27.18% [15]. - In July, the coal production of Coal India Limited was 46.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.72%, and the sales volume was 53.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.09% [16].
建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20250805
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-05 02:17