建信期货贵金属日评-20250805

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - The employment market deterioration in the US may prompt the Fed to restart the interest rate cut process ahead of schedule. Gold's safe - haven demand is greatly boosted, with its volatility rising but the mid - line upward trend remaining good. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - low positions [4]. - The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and the dispersion of reserve demand will support the long - term bull market of gold, while Trump's reforms and the expectation of central bank interest rate cuts will support the medium - term bull market. However, the high price - to - earnings ratio also means increased volatility, and attention should be paid to the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation pressure on the Fed's interest rate cut timing in the third quarter [6]. Group 4: Content Summary by Section 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - The significant deterioration of US non - farm employment in July and the large downward revision of the previous two months' data may lead the Fed to restart the interest rate cut process. The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler gives Trump the power to influence monetary policy. The US dollar index fell sharply, and London gold rebounded above $3350/ounce. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted, and it is expected to fluctuate between $3120 - $3500/ounce and then rise again. This week, attention should be paid to China's July foreign trade, price, and financial data, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and US trade tariff policies [4]. Mid - line Market - Since late April, London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500/ounce. Although the cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill have weakened gold's demand, the uncertainty of Trump's new policy and geopolitical risks support the price. The gold - silver ratio has basically returned to the level before April. It is expected that London gold will continue to fluctuate in the range of $3120 - $3500/ounce in the short term, and investors are advised to participate in trading with a long - position mindset and medium - low positions. Bearish traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity [6]. 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [8][10][12] 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump's new round of tariffs on dozens of trading partners caused a global stock market crash on Friday. The US Trade Representative said the tariffs may continue. The US Treasury Secretary is optimistic about reaching an agreement with China [18]. - US employment growth in July was weaker than expected, with a significant downward revision of 258,000 non - farm jobs in the previous two months. The Fed's probability of cutting interest rates in September has increased. The unemployment rate rose to 4.248%, the labor participation rate dropped to 62.2%, and the year - on - year wage increase remained at a high of 3.9% [18]. - Trump fired a senior official of the Labor Department after the weak employment report and accused her of manipulating data without evidence. Fed Governor Kugler resigned unexpectedly, giving Trump an earlier opportunity to influence the Fed. Trump said Fed Chairman Powell may stay in office [19]. - OPEC + agreed to increase crude oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. Eight member countries will meet again on September 7 to consider whether to lift another approximately 1.65 million barrels per day of production cuts [19]