工业硅期货早报-20250805

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of industrial silicon and polysilicon is complex. For industrial silicon, there is an issue of supply exceeding demand, with the supply side having increased production last week, while demand has been continuously sluggish. For polysilicon, the supply side is also relatively strong, and the demand recovery is at a low level [6][8][9]. - The cost support of industrial silicon is expected to increase, and it is predicted to fluctuate in the range of 8165 - 8555 for the 2509 contract. Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate in the range of 47310 - 50130 for the 2511 contract [6][10]. - The main logic for the current market situation is the mismatch of production capacity, leading to a situation where supply exceeds demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily View - Industrial Silicon - Supply - side: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 81,000 tons, a 3.85% increase compared to the previous week. The expected production schedule on the supply side is decreasing and remains at a low level [6]. - Demand - side: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 70,000 tons, a 1.40% decrease compared to the previous week. The demand recovery is at a low level [6]. - Inventory: The silicon inventory is 229,000 tons, at a high level. The social inventory is 540,000 tons, a 0.93% increase compared to the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory is 171,450 tons, a 3.40% decrease compared to the previous week. The main port inventory is 119,000 tons, a 0.83% decrease compared to the previous week [6]. - Cost: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of the sample oxygen - passing 553 is 2,354 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Others: The 09 contract basis is 940 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The MA20 is upward, and the 09 contract price closes below the MA20. The net short position of the main contract is increasing [6]. 3.2 Daily View - Polysilicon - Supply - side: Last week, the production of polysilicon was 26,500 tons, a 3.92% increase compared to the previous week. The predicted production schedule for August is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase compared to the previous month [8]. - Demand - side: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11 GW, a 1.78% decrease compared to the previous week. The inventory is 181,500 tons, a 1.56% increase compared to the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components also shows different trends in production and inventory [9]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 229,000 tons, a 5.76% decrease compared to the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [12]. - Cost: The average cost of the polysilicon N - type material industry is 36,500 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9,500 yuan/ton [9]. - Others: The 11 contract basis is - 1980 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The MA20 is upward, and the 11 contract price closes above the MA20. The net long position of the main contract is decreasing [12]. 3.3 Market Overview - Industrial Silicon: The prices of various contracts and spot prices have decreased to varying degrees. The weekly social inventory has increased, while the sample enterprise inventory has decreased, and the main port inventory has decreased [18]. - Polysilicon: The prices of various products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have remained relatively stable, with some changes in production, inventory, and export volume [20]. 3.4 Other Aspects - Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends: The report presents the trends of the SI main contract basis and the 421 - 553 spread [22]. - Inventory: It shows the trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions and types, including delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises [26]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The report shows the trends of industrial silicon production and capacity utilization in different regions and time periods [28]. - Cost Composition: It presents the trends of main production area electricity prices, silicon stone prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices [33]. - Cost - Sample Region Trends: It shows the cost - profit trends of 421 in Sichuan and Yunnan and the oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang [35]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The report provides the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon and the monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon [37][40][64]. - Downstream Industry Trends: It details the price, production, inventory, import - export, and other trends of downstream industries such as organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [43][51][61].