大越期货原油早报-20250805

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil prices opened lower and rebounded, remaining in a low - level volatile state. Trump's remarks increased concerns about US sanctions on Russian oil. The IEA raised the global crude oil surplus forecast for 2025 but also mentioned a "near - term peak - season tightness." This week, the situation regarding sanctions and subsequent trade tariff issues is expected to become clearer, and the market will experience significant fluctuations. Short - term prices are expected to range between 507 - 513, and long - term investors are advised to add to their long positions on dips [3]. - The short - term market is driven by geopolitical conflicts, while in the long - term, it awaits the peak summer demand season [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: US envoy Witkoff is expected to visit Russia on Wednesday. Trump set a Friday deadline for Russia to end the Ukraine war, threatening new sanctions otherwise. Trump also plans to significantly increase tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase and resale of Russian oil. Venezuelan oil exports in July decreased by about 10% month - on - month due to partners awaiting US approval for business expansion [3]. - Basis: On August 4, the spot price of Oman crude was $71.20 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $70.51 per barrel, with a basis of 8.96 yuan/barrel, indicating that the spot price was at par with the futures price [3]. - Inventory: US API crude inventory for the week ending July 25 increased by 1.539 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2.5 million barrels. EIA inventory for the same period increased by 7.698 million barrels, against the expected decrease of 1.288 million barrels. Cushing area inventory increased by 690,000 barrels. As of August 4, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.249 million barrels [3]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - Main Positions: As of July 29, the main long positions in WTI and Brent crude oil increased [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Trump plans to raise tariffs on Indian goods due to India's large - scale purchase and resale of Russian oil. In 2023, India became the largest market for Russian crude oil, and last year, Russia supplied about 550 million barrels of crude oil to India, while the US only exported 52 million barrels [5]. - The EU will suspend two counter - measures against US tariffs for six months according to an agreement with the US [5]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly said that the time for interest rate cuts is approaching, and well - known bond fund manager Gundlach believes the Fed will cut rates twice this year [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Focus - Positive Factors: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and summer demand is starting to rise [6]. - Negative Factors: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Quotes: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil decreased by - 1.31%, - 1.54%, - 2.14%, and - 3.46% respectively [7]. - Spot Quotes: The prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oil decreased, with declines ranging from - 0.59% to - 3.77% [9]. - Inventory Trends: API and EIA inventories showed different trends from May to July. API inventory increased by 1.539 million barrels in the week ending July 25, and EIA inventory increased by 7.698 million barrels during the same period [10][13]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of July 29, the net long position increased by 2,692 [17]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of July 29, the net long position increased by 33,959 [18].