大越期货豆粕早报-20250805

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Bean Meal: The U.S. soybean market is influenced by weather uncertainties and awaits the follow - up of China - U.S. tariff negotiations. Domestically, high soybean imports in July and weak spot prices suppress the bean meal market. It is expected to return to a range - bound pattern, with the M2509 contract oscillating between 3000 and 3060 [8]. - Soybeans: The U.S. soybean market has a bottom support due to weather uncertainties, but the high - yield South American soybeans and good U.S. planting weather limit its upside. Domestically, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imports supports the bottom, while high import volumes and expected domestic soybean production increase limit the upside. The A2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4080 and 4180 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Bean Meal: Fundamental analysis shows a neutral stance. The basis is at a discount, the inventory has increased, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main long positions have decreased while funds have flowed in. It is expected to be range - bound [8]. - Soybeans: The fundamental view is neutral. The basis is at a premium, the inventory has slightly increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average but heading up, and the main positions have shifted from short to long while funds have flowed out. The price is expected to face constraints on the upside [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of China - U.S. tariff negotiations is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans. The U.S. soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the market is expected to oscillate around the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance [12]. - High domestic soybean imports in July, increasing bean meal inventory, and uncertainties in U.S. soybean weather and China - U.S. trade negotiations have led to a return to a range - bound pattern for bean meal [12]. - Reduced domestic pig - farming profits have led to low expectations for pig restocking. However, the recent increase in bean meal demand and uncertainties in China - U.S. trade negotiations have also contributed to the range - bound pattern [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bean Meal Bullish: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low domestic bean meal inventory, and uncertainties in U.S. soybean - growing weather [13]. - Bean Meal Bearish: High domestic soybean imports in July and the expected high - yield South American soybeans [13]. - Soybean Bullish: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Soybean Bearish: Expected high - yield Brazilian soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: Data from 2015 - 2024 shows changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory, with the inventory - to - consumption ratio generally fluctuating [31]. - Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: From 2015 - 2024, data on harvest area, production, imports, consumption, and inventory are presented, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also changed over time [32]. 3.5 Position Data - Bean Meal Futures: The futures price has rebounded from the bottom, the spot price has been relatively stable, and the high - level spot discount has narrowed [22]. - Soybean and Bean Meal Warehouse Receipts: Data from July 23 to August 4 shows changes in warehouse receipts for soybeans and bean meal [19].