大越期货沥青期货早报-20250805

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned domestic asphalt production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate has increased, and refineries have increased production, which will increase supply pressure next week [8]. - The demand side shows that the current demand is lower than the historical average level, with some types of asphalt and related product operating rates being lower than historical averages [8]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [9]. - The main positions are net short, with a shift from long to short. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3550 - 3596 [10]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: Supply increases and demand is lower than expected, so it is bearish [8]. - Cost: Crude oil weakens, and short - term cost support weakens, so it is bearish [9]. - Basis: On August 4th, the spot price in Shandong was 3785 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 229 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, so it is bullish [11]. - Inventory: Social, factory, and port inventories are all decreasing, so it is bullish [11]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract is below the MA20, so it is neutral [11]. - Main Positions: The main positions are net short, with a shift from long to short, so it is bearish [10]. - Expectation: It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3550 - 3596 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The prices of most asphalt contracts decreased, and the inventories of different types of contracts also showed different degrees of decline [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - Basis Trend: The report presents the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis [20][21]. - Spread Analysis: It includes the spread trends of main contracts (such as 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts), asphalt - crude oil price trends, crude oil cracking spreads, and the price - to - price trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [23][26][29][33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - It shows the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt [36][37]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: It includes asphalt profit and the profit spread trend between coking and asphalt [38][41]. - Supply - Side Analysis: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, refinery asphalt production, operating rate, and estimated maintenance loss [44][46][49]. - Inventory Analysis: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio [64][68][71]. - Import and Export Situation: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price difference trend of South Korean asphalt [74][77][79]. - Demand - Side Analysis: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment), downstream machinery demand, asphalt operating rate, and downstream operating conditions [80][83][86]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance table from January 2024 to August 2025 [104][105].