大越期货菜粕早报-20250805

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2680 - 2740. The market is influenced by factors such as the low - level operation of rapeseed meal oil mills, low inventory, the peak season of spot demand, increased imports of Canadian rapeseed, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The overall situation is neutral. In the short - term, due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, the price may rise and then fall, and return to the range oscillation with the influence of soybean meal [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is in a range - bound oscillation. The fundamentals are affected by factors like soybean meal trends, low - level operation of oil mills, low inventory, and tariff policies. The basis is at a discount, the inventory has increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, the major short positions have decreased, and the price is expected to return to range oscillation [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the supply shortage expectation in the spot market has improved. The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has slightly decreased, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. The global rapeseed output has slightly decreased this year, and the geopolitical conflict may support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the low inventory pressure of oil mills [12]. - Bearish: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June, the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - Trading Data: From July 24 to August 4, the average trading price and trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated, with the 2509 contract showing weak oscillation [14]. - Price and Inventory Data: The futures and spot prices of rapeseed meal fluctuated. The basis of rapeseed meal was at a discount, and the high - level discount has narrowed. The warehouse receipts increased by 1200 on July 31 and remained stable thereafter. The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 were provided, showing changes in inventory and consumption ratios [16][18][26][27]. 5. Position Data - The major short positions of rapeseed meal decreased, and the funds flowed out [9]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The short - term view is a range - bound oscillation. The strategy is based on the analysis of fundamentals, basis, inventory, price trends, and major positions [9].