大越期货PVC期货早报-20250805

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC has rebounded, with domestic demand recovery being sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the PVC2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4925 - 5037. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [6][9][14]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: Overall bearish. In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.84%, with no change from the previous week. The production of calcium carbide enterprises decreased by 4.06% month - on - month, while that of ethylene enterprises increased by 12.82% month - on - month. The downstream overall开工率 was 42.05%, a slight increase but still below the historical average. The cost of calcium carbide and ethylene has increased, and production scheduling may be under pressure [6][8]. - Basis: On August 4, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4980 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 1 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, a neutral situation [11]. - Inventory: Factory inventory decreased by 3.28% month - on - month, with calcium carbide factory inventory decreasing by 3.12% and ethylene factory inventory decreasing by 3.85%. However, social inventory increased by 4.91% month - on - month, and the inventory days of production enterprises decreased by 3.33%. Overall, it is bearish [11]. - Disk: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20, a neutral situation [11]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions, a bearish situation [11]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - Various indicators such as enterprise prices, monthly spreads, downstream开工率, profit, and cost showed different degrees of changes. For example, the prices of some enterprises decreased, and the profit of calcium carbide and ethylene methods showed different degrees of improvement or decline [16]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend: The report presents the basis trend of PVC from 2022 to 2025, along with the market price in East China and the closing price of the main contract [18][19]. - Price and Volume Trends: It shows the price, trading volume, and position changes of PVC futures in July - August 2025, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and the net position changes of the top 5 and 20 seats [21][22]. - Spread Analysis: Presents the spread trends of the main contracts from 2024 to 2025, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [24][25]. 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: Analyzes the price, cost, profit,开工率, and inventory of raw materials such as blue charcoal, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda from multiple years [27][30][32][34]. - PVC Supply Trend: Shows the capacity utilization rate, production, and maintenance volume of calcium carbide and ethylene methods from 2018 - 2025, as well as the daily and weekly production of PVC [39][41]. - Demand Trend: Analyzes the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream开工率 of PVC from multiple years, and also examines the relationship between PVC demand and real estate and social financing data [43][45][47][55][58]. - Inventory: Presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide and ethylene factory inventories, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises from 2019 - 2025 [59][60]. - Ethylene Method: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads from multiple years [61][62]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including production, import, export, demand, and inventory [64][65].