Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product morning report released by the research center's agricultural product team on August 5, 2025 [1] Group 2: Corn and Starch Price Data - From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the price of corn in Changchun remained at 2230 (except for August 4 with no data), and in Jinzhou it was stable at 2290; the price in Weifang was stable at 2458, and in Shekou it decreased by 10 to 2410 - The basis of corn increased by 13 to 6, the trade profit decreased by 10, and the import profit increased by 39 to 376 - The price of starch in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2900 and 2980 respectively; the basis increased by 4 to 191, and the processing profit remained at -71 [2] Market Analysis - For corn, the continuous auction of reserve imported corn this week had a transaction rate of 27% and 31%. The import auction aims to relieve supply tension, not to suppress domestic prices. With a low transaction rate, the increase in market supply is limited. Currently, supply mainly relies on old - crop inventory and wheat substitution. In the short term, with a tight balance sheet in the old - crop season, port corn inventory continued to decline, and the current price has strong support. In the long - term, if the import profit space persists, it may increase forward import orders. Also, the planting cost of new - season corn has decreased compared to the old crop, and the increase in supply after the large - scale listing of new grain may put downward pressure on new - season corn prices - For starch, this week, starch quotes showed differentiation, with prices in the Northeast decreasing and those in Shandong increasing. The transaction situation improved slightly, and inventory remained at a high level. In the short term, starch prices fluctuate with raw material prices, and deep - processing is still in a loss situation. After a round of correction, the downside support is relatively strong, and it is expected to have a weak rebound in the short term. In the long - term, high finished - product starch inventory restricts the enterprise's price - adjustment space, and with the expected decline in new - season raw material costs, a bearish view on starch prices is maintained [3] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Liuzhou increased by 50 to 6080, in Nanning remained unchanged at 6030, and in Kunming decreased by 15 to 5865 - The basis in Liuzhou increased by 65 to 362, the import profit from Thailand increased by 39 to 334, and from Brazil increased by 39 to 517. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 70 to 19373 [6] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, and supply pressure is weighing on international sugar prices. The market has already priced in the expected increase in production due to a high sugar - making ratio. As of now, due to continuously low yield per unit and sugar extraction rate year - on - year, the uncertainty of Brazil's later - stage production has increased, and there may be a corrective rebound in raw sugar. It is necessary to continuously monitor the weather conditions in the producing areas and the bi - weekly report data - Domestically, the market generally follows raw sugar, but due to large - scale price fixing by processing sugar mills, the fluctuation range of Zhengzhou sugar is smaller than that of raw sugar. A large amount of imported sugar is about to arrive at ports, and the corresponding out - of - quota import cost is in the range of 5750 - 5900 yuan/ton, putting significant pressure on the upper side of the futures market [6] Group 4: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Data - From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 60 to 14845, and the import profit of imported M - grade US cotton decreased - The number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 123 to 9032 - The price of Vietnamese yarn remained at 2.49, the spot price of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 50 to 20650, the import profit of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 13 to 265, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 113 to -937 [7] Market Analysis - For cotton, as the commodity market sentiment weakened, the long - position liquidation in the 09 contract led to a strong backwardation market. However, with the 9 - 1 spread reaching -200 and still far from delivery, it is advisable to reduce positions and take profits. In the future, the market will test the recovery of downstream demand, and if it performs well, it is expected to be reflected in mid - to late August [7] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the egg prices in Hebei decreased by 0.17 to 2.87, in Liaoning decreased by 0.18 to 2.80, in Shandong decreased by 0.15 to 2.80, in Henan decreased by 0.10 to 2.85, and in Hubei decreased by 0.27 to 3.33 - The basis decreased by 54 to 175 - The price of white - feather broilers increased by 0.05 to 3.45, the price of yellow - feather broilers increased by 0.05 to 3.95, and the price of live pigs decreased by 0.27 to 20.33 [9] Market Analysis - In mid - July, high temperatures led to a decline in the egg - laying rate of laying hens, and after the plum - rain season, the concentrated replenishment demand at all levels drove the egg price to rebound rapidly from a low level. Later, due to the release of some cold - storage eggs and unfavorable weather for storage and transportation, the market sales slowed down, and the egg price corrected. It is expected that starting from mid - August, the stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival, National Day, and school openings will gradually start, and the recovery in demand may drive the spot price up again. However, the early rebound in the spot price in mid - June delayed the process of capacity reduction, and high inventory and cold - storage egg inventory may limit the height of the subsequent seasonal rebound. In addition, attention should be paid to potential factors such as disease risks and vegetable price fluctuations that may affect the egg price [10] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7800 - The national apple inventory decreased by 59, Shandong inventory decreased by 38, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 68 - The 1 - month basis decreased to 56, the 5 - month basis decreased to -38, and the 10 - month basis decreased to -26 [12][13] Market Analysis - In the new - crop season, apple bagging in various producing areas has ended, and the apples are in the growth stage, waiting for bag removal. In the western region, the previous gale weather led to uneven fruit setting. Although the yield per unit is expected to increase compared to last year, the phenomenon of tree felling in recent years is relatively serious. In the Shandong producing area, the output in this season is expected to decrease by about 20%. Nationally, the output in the new - crop season will not differ much from last year, and subsequent situations need to be continuously monitored. On the consumption side, the apple consumption in the 2024/25 season has entered the off - season, and the apparent inventory is the lowest in the past five years. The inventory reduction in the main producing areas has slowed down recently. In terms of spot prices, the price has been stable recently, and seasonal fruits have occupied the market share of apples. Attention should be paid to the situation after bag removal [13] Group 7: Live Pigs Price Data - From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the price of live pigs in Henan Kaifeng decreased by 0.30 to 14.08, in Hubei Xiangyang decreased by 0.30 to 14.05, in Shandong Linyi decreased by 0.35 to 14.02, in Anhui Hefei decreased by 0.45 to 14.25, and in Jiangsu Nantong decreased by 0.50 to 14.30 - The basis decreased by 185 to 140 [13] Market Analysis - The reduction of live - pig production capacity is insufficient, and long - term supply pressure still exists. The futures market has frequently seen emotional rallies, trading on the expected seasonal rebound of the spot market and macro - and micro - policy expectations, which still need to be verified by the spot market. After the recent cooling of macro - sentiment, the market is trading on weak reality. In the short term, the spot market is in a weak and volatile game. There is pressure on live - pig slaughter in August, but there are also supporting factors in the later seasonal period. Continuous attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [13]
农产品早报-20250805
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-08-05 03:13