Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The domestic LPG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend due to increased short - term domestic chemical demand, weak domestic combustion demand, high port inventory pressure, and a weak international fundamental situation [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Content Market Price Data - From July 2 to August 4, 2025, prices of products such as South China LPG, Shandong LPG, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylated oil showed certain fluctuations. For example, South China LPG dropped from 4480 yuan/ton on July 2 to 4390 yuan/ton on August 4 [1] - The main contract has shifted to the 09 contract, and the basis has strengthened to 445 (+79). The 09 - 10 spread is now - 413 (+26), and the 9 - 10 monthly spread is - 439 (-18) [1] International Market Situation - The international market is fundamentally loose and continues to be weak. The August CP official price has been lowered, with propane at 520 US dollars/ton (down 55 US dollars/ton from last month) and butane at 490 US dollars/ton (down 55 US dollars/ton from last month). The estimated landed cost of propane is around 4327 yuan/ton, and that of butane is around 4090 yuan/ton [1] - The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window is closed, while the US - Asia arbitrage window is open. The CP propane landed discount fluctuates. The FEI - MOPJ first expands and then shrinks, currently at - 53 (-5) [1] Fundamental Situation - In terms of fundamentals, port arrivals have increased, leading to port inventory accumulation; factory inventory has slightly decreased; and the commodity volume has slightly rebounded [1] - The spot profit of PDH to PP fluctuates, and the paper profit continues to improve; the profits of other downstream devices have all declined. The PDH operating rate is 72.63% (-0.5pct). Although Liaoning Jinfa has resumed production, Tianjin Bohua has shut down due to a malfunction, and both Tianjin Bohua and Jiangsu Ruiheng are expected to restart next week [1]
LPG早报-20250805
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-08-05 03:06