彭博：全球经济图表：美国就业市场波动为美联储提供信号

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the labor market and economic growth, suggesting potential investment risks in related sectors [5][12][41]. Core Insights - The U.S. labor market has shown signs of significant slowdown, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by an average of only 35,000 over the past three months, and a downward revision of nearly 260,000 jobs for May and June [5][6]. - The unemployment rate has risen, indicating that job seekers are facing increased difficulties in finding employment, which poses risks to consumer and business spending [5][12]. - Despite a 3% annualized growth in GDP, the final sales to private domestic purchasers have reached their lowest growth rate since the end of 2022, reflecting weak underlying demand [11][12]. - Manufacturing activity has contracted at the fastest pace in nine months, with 25% of U.S. manufacturers reporting a reduction in employment due to declining orders [12][14]. - The average U.S. tariff rate has reached its highest level since World War II, with significant implications for trade dynamics and economic performance [39][41]. Summary by Sections Labor Market - The labor market is transitioning to a slower growth phase, with rising unemployment and stagnant wage growth, which could further dampen consumer and business spending [5][6][12]. - The manufacturing sector is particularly affected, with a notable decline in employment and activity levels [12][14]. Economic Growth - The U.S. GDP growth remains robust at 3%, but the underlying demand indicators suggest a weakening economy [11][12]. - The trade policies and tariffs imposed by the U.S. are contributing to economic uncertainty and may hinder future growth prospects [39][41]. Trade and Tariffs - The report highlights the impact of increased tariffs on trade relationships and economic activity, with the average tariff rate now at 15%, significantly higher than previous years [39][41]. - The implications of these tariffs are expected to affect both domestic manufacturers and international trade partners [39][41].