全球跨资产策略-摩根士丹利研究关键预测-Global Cross-Asset Strategy_ Morgan Stanley Research_ Key Forecasts

Investment Rating - The report maintains an equal weight in equities, overweight in core fixed income, and underweight in other fixed income [4][6]. Core Insights - The US labor market is gradually cooling, with expectations of a decline in real GDP growth from 2.5% in 2024 to 0.8% in 2025 [2][8]. - Global growth is projected to decrease from 3.5% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025, influenced by tariff shocks and immigration restrictions [2][8]. - The report highlights a preference for quality cyclical stocks and investment-grade credit over high-yield credit amid growth and tariff risks [4][6]. Economic Outlook - The US GDP growth forecast for 2025 is revised down to 0.8%, with inflation expected to peak at 3.0% [9]. - The Euro Area and Japan are also projected to experience slow growth, with GDP growth of 0.8% and 0.4% respectively in 2025 [9]. - The report anticipates a significant drop in global demand due to tariffs, impacting supply chains and investment [8]. Sector Recommendations - In the US, the focus is on quality cyclicals, large caps, and defensives with lower leverage [6]. - Key sectors in Europe include defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials, with a recommendation to reposition into resilient market pockets [6]. - Emerging markets are favored towards financials and domestic-focused businesses over exporters [6]. Market Valuations - The S&P 500 is projected to reach a price target of 6,500 with a P/E ratio of 22.5x for 2025 [7]. - The MSCI Europe index is expected to see a slight decline in earnings, with a target of 2,250 [7]. - Emerging markets are forecasted to have a P/E ratio of 13.1x, with a target of 1,200 [7].