甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250805

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Methanol: This week, it fluctuates with coal. Its fundamental situation changes little and remains in the process of inventory accumulation. Imports are high, and the valuation is currently normal. In the short - term, it tends to fluctuate [2]. - Polyethylene: The inventory of top - two oil companies is neutral year - on - year. The top - two oil companies are accumulating inventory, while coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 150 in North China and - 100 in East China. The import profit is around - 100 with no further increase for now. In August, maintenance decreases month - on - month, and domestic linear production increases month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the new device commissioning in 2025 [4]. - PP: The upstream top - two oil companies are accumulating inventory, while the middle - stream is reducing inventory. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around - 200. The subsequent supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face medium - to - high pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [4]. - PVC: The basis remains at 09 - 150, and the factory - pick - up basis is - 450. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventory of the mid - and upstream is continuously de - stocking at a slower pace. In summer, the northwest devices have seasonal maintenance. Attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability in July - August. The current static inventory contradiction accumulates slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [4]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - Price Data: From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The daily change in the Jiangsu spot price was - 27, the South China spot price changed by - 10, and the Northwest discounted price on the disk increased by 20. Other indicators such as CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged [2]. - Viewpoint: Fluctuates with coal, fundamentals change little, in inventory accumulation, normal valuation, short - term oscillation [2]. Polyethylene - Price Data: From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 820. The daily change in the North China LL price was - 40, and the East China LL price changed by - 35. The主力期货 price decreased by 38 [4]. - Viewpoint: Neutral overall inventory, attention to LL - HD conversion, US quotes, and new device commissioning in 2025 [4]. PP - Price Data: From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased by 50, the East China PP price decreased by 40, and the主力期货 price decreased by 24 [4]. - Viewpoint: Upstream inventory accumulation, middle - stream de - stocking, attention to export volume and PDH device maintenance [4]. PVC - Price Data: From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price increased by 50, and the East China calcium carbide - based PVC price decreased by 60 [4]. - Viewpoint: Seasonal downstream weakness, slow mid - and upstream de - stocking, attention to commissioning and export in July - August [4].