瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20250805

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term price is dominated by the slaughter rhythm and will fluctuate repeatedly. With the short - term recovery of the slaughter volume from a low level, it will put pressure on price fluctuations. It is expected that the price will fluctuate slightly weakly. It is recommended to sell short at high prices and set stop - losses [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs was 13,885 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the main contract position was 35,710 lots, down 2,540 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 300 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 20,653 lots, down 575 lots [2] Spot Market - The live pig prices in Henan Zhumadian, Jilin Siping, and Guangdong Yunfu were 14,100 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan), 13,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 15,500 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively. The main live pig basis was 215 yuan/ton, up 255 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory was 42,4470,000 heads (up 7160,000 heads), and the inventory of breeding sows was 4,0420,000 heads (up 40,000 heads). The CPI year - on - year was 0.1% (up 0.2 percentage points). The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2,940 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan), the spot price of corn was 2,398.04 yuan/ton (down 3.33 yuan), and the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 924.08 (down 9.46). The monthly output of feed was 27,621,000 tons (up 981,000 tons), the price of binary breeding sows was 1,638 yuan/head (unchanged), the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 116.78 yuan/head (down 45.39 yuan), and the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs was 43.85 yuan/head (down 18.31 yuan). The monthly import volume of pork was 90,000 tons (unchanged), and the average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas was 13.7 yuan/kg (unchanged) [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 32,160,000 heads (up 1,390,000 heads), and the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 470.76 billion yuan (up 12.94 billion yuan) [2] Industry News - Mysteel data showed that on August 5, 2025, the daily slaughter volume of live pigs by sample slaughtering enterprises in key provinces was 112,554 heads, a 0.97% increase from the previous period. On Tuesday, the live pig 2509 contract closed up 0.04%. The supply side saw an increase in supply as the slaughter rhythm resumed after a short - term reduction at the beginning of the month. The demand side had sufficient pig supply, and the slaughterhouse opening rate rebounded slightly, but the high temperature still suppressed the willingness to buy pork, resulting in a limited rebound [2]