Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For corn, the high-quality rate of US corn remains good, and the weather is favorable for corn growth in the Midwest, leading to high output prospects and continuous pressure on international corn prices. In the domestic market, the supply is becoming more abundant, and downstream demand is average, with weak procurement enthusiasm. Corn futures prices are generally weak and should be treated with a bearish mindset [2]. - For corn starch, due to continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years, reducing supply pressure. However, downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. Corn starch futures prices have been oscillating weakly at a low level recently and should also be treated with a bearish mindset [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn: The closing price of the active contract is 2,249 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 monthly spread is 55 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the active contract is 768,475 lots, up 21,511 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 35,985 lots, down 18,100 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 151,940 lots, down 601 lots; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 405 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn starch: The closing price of the active contract is 2,654 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 monthly spread is 96 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the active contract is 153,533 lots, down 1,311 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,480 lots, up 5,331 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 4,450 lots, up 4,450 lots [2]. Outer - disk Market - The closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn is 407 cents/bushel, down 4 cents/bushel; the total position is 1,575,283 contracts, up 81,613 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 133,467 contracts, up 416 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2,398.04 yuan/ton, down 3.33 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2,320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the CIF price of imported corn is 1,926.33 yuan/ton, down 2.37 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 45 US dollars/ton [2]. - Corn starch: The factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2,710 yuan/ton, 2,950 yuan/ton, and 2,880 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2,437.61 yuan/ton, down 2.22 yuan/ton; the price difference between tapioca starch and corn starch is 140 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder is 36 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine is 401.85 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively, all unchanged; the predicted sown areas are 35.37 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, 44.3 million hectares respectively, all unchanged [2]. - Corn inventories at southern ports are 88.9 million tons, up 62 million tons; at northern ports are 291 million tons, down 13 million tons; the monthly import volume is 16 million tons, down 3 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly inventory of deep - processing corn is 379.7 million tons, down 20.8 million tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 129.3 million tons, down 1.8 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27,780 tons, up 4,060 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2,762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the sample feed corn inventory days are 30.58 days, down 0.29 days; the weekly consumption of deep - processing corn is 113.77 million tons, up 7.53 million tons; the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 41.8%, up 3.17 percentage points; the starch enterprise operating rate is 51.76%, up 6.3 percentage points [2]. - The processing profits of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are - 114 yuan/ton, - 48 yuan/ton, and - 67 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.63%, up 1.71 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.51%, up 0.6 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.15%, up 3.23 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.14%, up 3.23 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's weather report shows that the temperature in the corn - belt region is lower than normal, which is beneficial to the growth of soybeans and corn. StoneX predicts that the total US corn production in 2025 will reach 16.323 billion bushels, with an average yield of 188.1 bushels per acre, while the USDA predicts 15.705 billion bushels and a yield of 181 bushels per acre [2]. - As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the high - quality rate of US corn is 73%, higher than the market expectation of 72%, the same as the previous week, and higher than 67% in the same period last year [2].
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250805
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-05 09:02