瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20250805

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils is relatively resilient, and with the fifth round of coke price increases confirmed, cost-side support has strengthened. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows a rebound from low levels with an expanding red bar. Operationally, the market is expected to be volatile with an upward bias, and attention should be paid to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,457 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2] - HC main contract open interest: 1,461,734 lots, up 24,663 lots [2] - Net position of the top 20 in HC contracts: -62,794 lots, up 17,567 lots [2] - HC10 - 1 contract spread: -5 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 55,998 tons, unchanged [2] - HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 224 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,480 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Guangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,450 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] - Wuhan 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,470 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tianjin 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,390 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] - HC main contract basis: 23 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot-rolled coil - rebar spread: 90 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 778 yuan/wet ton, up 12 yuan [2] - Hebei quasi-primary metallurgical coke: 1,535 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hebei Q235 billet: 3,080 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] - 45-port iron ore inventory: 136.579 million tons, down 1.3248 million tons [2] - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 462,800 tons, down 35,200 tons [2] - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.2678 million tons, down 132,200 tons [2] - Hebei billet inventory: 1.1102 million tons, up 41,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 83.48%, unchanged [2] - 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.22%, down 0.56% [2] - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil output: 3.2279 million tons, up 53,000 tons [2] - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 82.46%, up 1.35% [2] - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil factory inventory: 793,000 tons, up 13,000 tons [2] - 33-city hot-rolled coil social inventory: 2.6865 million tons, up 14,900 tons [2] - Domestic crude steel output: 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons [2] - Steel net export volume: 9.21 million tons, down 890,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.7941 million vehicles, up 145,600 vehicles [2] - Automobile sales: 2.9045 million vehicles, up 218,100 vehicles [2] - Air conditioner production: 28.3831 million units, down 1.0969 million units [2] - Household refrigerator production: 9.0474 million units, up 537,400 units [2] - Household washing machine production: Information incomplete in the report [2] 3.6 Industry News - The fifth round of coke price increases has been fully implemented. Steel mills in Hebei, Shandong and other places have raised the coke procurement price, with a wet quenching increase of 50 yuan/ton and a dry quenching increase of 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on August 4 [2]. - According to the preliminary estimate of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in the country in July was 1.18 million, a year-on-year increase of 25% and a month-on-month decrease of 4%. Among them, Tesla's sales volume in China in July was 67,900, a month-on-month decrease of 5.2% [2].