建信期货油脂日报-20250806

Group 1: General Information - Report Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - P2509: Previous settlement price 8814, opening price 8808, closing price 9064, up 250 (2.84%), trading volume 580261, open interest 400643, open interest change +50247 [7] - P2601: Previous settlement price 8830, opening price 8810, closing price 9044, up 214 (2.42%), trading volume 188349, open interest 224873, open interest change +16881 [7] - Y2509: Previous settlement price 8246, opening price 8226, closing price 8344, up 98 (1.19%), trading volume 303060, open interest 469009 [7] - Y2601: Previous settlement price 8204, opening price 8194, closing price 8320, up 116 (1.41%), trading volume 217779, open interest 500881, open interest change +32194 [7] - O1509: Previous settlement price 9490, opening price 9522, closing price 9615, up 175 (1.32%), trading volume 204310, open interest 188408, open interest change +6762 [7] - OI601: Previous settlement price 9429, opening price 9458, closing price 9547, up 118 (1.25%), trading volume 77547, open interest 144896, open interest change +11141 [7] Operational Suggestions - Palm oil prices are under pressure due to increased production and weak demand, but there are rumors of a significant decline in Indonesia's June production. Rapeseed oil has sufficient near - term supply but fewer far - month purchases. Soybean oil inventory may increase in the short term but is optimistic in the long term due to biodiesel policies. The spot basis of the three major oils has limited room for significant downward adjustment in the later period. It is advisable to buy far - month basis appropriately. The three major oils may adjust in the short term, but the adjustment space is limited. In the medium and long term, buy on dips [8] Group 3: Industry News - Malaysian palm oil exports in July were 896362 tons, a 25.0% decrease from June. Exports to China were 75000 tons, down from 168000 tons in June [9] - Malaysian palm oil production in July increased by 7.07% month - on - month, with FFB yield up 7.19% and OER down 0.02% month - on - month [9] - Estimates suggest that the Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of July reached a 19 - month high, with Reuters estimating production at 1.828 million tons, exports at 1.3 million tons, and inventory at 2.25 million tons; Bloomberg estimating production at 1.83 million tons, exports at 1.3 million tons, and inventory at 2.23 million tons [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including those on the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, price spreads of palm oil futures contracts, and exchange rates of the US dollar against the Malaysian ringgit and the Chinese yuan [11][19][26][30]