白糖日报-20250806

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The decline of Zhengzhou sugar may be nearing its end as the long - position funds are actively shifting to the 01 contract, causing the 9 - 1 spread to weaken. Currently, the basis is large, and there is certain support at the 5700 mark [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market Conditions: SR509 closed at 5697 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan or 0.42%, with a position reduction of 20364 lots; SR601 closed at 5638 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.21%, with a position increase of 24152 lots; US Sugar 10 closed at 16.25 cents/pound, up 0.07 cents or 0.43%, with a position increase of 2539 lots; US Sugar 03 closed at 16.88 cents/pound, up 0.10 cents or 0.60%, with a position increase of 2476 lots [7]. - Market Analysis: New York raw sugar futures strengthened on Monday. The bearish production data of Brazil's central - southern region in the first half of July suppressed the raw sugar price, but concerns about the decline in Brazil's production still exist, and there is a high possibility of a reduction in beet sugar production in the EU. Zhengzhou sugar's decline was mainly due to the long - position funds' shift to the 01 contract [7][8]. 3.2 Industry News - China - Guangxi: In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative cane crushing in Guangxi was 4859.54 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 258.47 million tons; the output of blended sugar was 646.50 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.36 million tons; the sugar - making rate was 13.30%, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 percentage points. As of the end of July, the cumulative sugar sales were 549.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.66 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 85.01%, a year - on - year increase of 2.51 percentage points. In July, the single - month sugar sales were 35.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.78 million tons; the industrial inventory was 96.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.3 million tons [9]. - China - Yunnan: The 2024/2025 sugar - crushing season in Yunnan ended 5 days earlier than last year. The total cane crushing was 1806.30 million tons (compared with 1544.94 million tons in the previous season), the sugar output was 241.88 million tons (compared with 203.20 million tons in the previous season), the sugar - making rate was 13.39% (compared with 13.15% in the previous season), and the alcohol output was 2.82 million tons (compared with 2.80 million tons in the previous season). As of July 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar sales were 195.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.62 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 80.68%, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%; the monthly sugar sales were 20.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 million tons; the industrial inventory was 46.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.06 million tons [9]. - Brazil: In the first half of July, the cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 4982.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 641.1 million tons or 14.77%; the ATR of cane was 133.66 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 9.79 kg/ton; the sugar - making ratio was 53.68%, a year - on - year increase of 3.79%; the ethanol output was 2.194 billion liters, a year - on - year increase of 0.051 billion liters or 2.36%; the sugar output was 3.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.446 million tons or 15.07% [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including spot price trends, 2509 contract basis, SR9 - 1 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract [11][15][17].