建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250806

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of polyolefins persists, with new PE plants in Jilin Petrochemical, ExxonMobil Huizhou, and Guangxi Petrochemical planned to be put into operation in the third quarter, and the 900,000 tons/year production capacity of Ningbo Daxie Phase II expected to be launched, significantly impacting the supply side [5]. - The demand is weak and needs improvement, with the overall downstream operating load remaining at a low level. Although the agricultural film operation has rebounded from a low level, the demand follow - up is slow. The orders in the construction field are mediocre, and the operations of pipes and plastic weaving are at historical lows. The demand for daily injection - molded products has increased slightly month - on - month [5]. - It is expected that the demand will gradually emerge from the off - season in the second half of the month, but currently, downstream enterprises mostly maintain a low - inventory strategy, with limited motivation for active restocking [5]. - The policy - driven market has led polyolefins to follow, but the loose fundamental pattern will continuously restrict their upward space. After the digestion of anti - involution sentiment, polyolefins will return to a weak and volatile operation [5]. Summary by Directory I. Market Review and Outlook - Futures Market: On August 5, 2025, L2509 opened lower, fluctuated upward during the session, and finally closed at 7,323 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton (0.65%), with a trading volume of 180,000 lots and an increase of 1,254 in positions to 301,516 lots. PP's main contract closed at 7,095 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan (0.37%), with a decrease of 1,671 lots in positions to 258,600 lots. Other contracts also showed different degrees of increase [5][7]. - Inventory: The inventory level of major producers on August 5, 2025, was 805,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons (1.83%) from the previous working day, compared with 815,000 tons in the same period last year [7]. - Market Prices: The PE market price was weakly adjusted. The LLDPE price in North China was 7,150 - 7,450 yuan/ton, in East China was 7,230 - 7,600 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,320 - 7,650 yuan/ton. The PP market was running weakly, with a decline of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6,920 - 7,060 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,980 - 7,100 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,960 - 7,150 yuan/ton. The Shandong propylene market price continued to rise, closing at 6,150 - 6,200 yuan/ton at 12:00, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. II. Industry News - Not provided III. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data graphs, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][16][17]